Summary Jamie Dimon warns âall these very powerful forcesâ will affect U.S. economy in 2024 and 2025 (Youtube) youtu.be
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Speaker 0 I think it's a mistake to assume that everything's hunky dory. And, you know, and when stock markets are up, it's kinda like this little drug we all feel. Like, it's just great, you know. But remember, we've had so much fiscal monetary stimulation, so I'm a little more on the cautious side that we are facing a lot of things in 20 and o 24 or 25. And you we mentioned Ukraine, the terrorist activity in Israel, the Red Sea, quantitative tightening, which I still Question, if we understand exactly how that works, I don't think we do.
Speaker 0 How QE actually work, what the effect of negative rate, you know, 0 rates was for all this time, And, obviously, the politics and, you know, and then the Ukrainian war is affecting oil, gas, food, migration. So you have all these very powerful forces that are gonna be affecting us in 24 and 25. So if I was the government, I would be preparing for I'm gonna do about that assuming things aren't good. And I just also wanna point out, I I wish the Democrats would think a little more carefully when they talk about MAGA, You know? And you if you travel this country, you know, and the country's unbelievable.
Speaker 0 We took our bus trip this year, and Leslie Picker was on Spokane and boy Boise and Bozeman, people are growing. They're hungry to grow. They're innovating. It's it's everywhere. It's not just Silicon Valley.
Speaker 0 So we've got this great hand. But when people say MAGA, they're actually looking at people voting for Trump, and they think they're voting and they're basically scapegoating them that you are like him. And but I don't think they're voting for Trump because his family values. If you look just take a step back, be honest. He's kinda right about NATO, Kinda right with immigration.
Speaker 0 Mhmm. He grew the economy quite well.
Speaker 1 China virus?
Speaker 0 Tax reform worked. He was right about Some of China, I don't I don't like what
Speaker 1 he did. I said China virus.
Speaker 0 Yeah. He said he made him ready. He and I don't like how he said things in New Mexico. I don't like but he wasn't wrong about some of these critical issues, And that's why the vote informed. And and I think people should be a little more respectful of our fellow citizens.
Speaker 0 And when you guys have people up here, she had to you should always ask the why. Not like it's a binary thing. You're supporting Trump. You're not supporting Trump. Why are you supporting hate
Speaker 1 75,000,000 of your fellow Americans. It's I I agree. Private.
Speaker 0 And, you know, the Democrats have done a pretty good job with the deplorables Right. Hugging on their Bibles and their beer and their guns. I mean, really, Like, could we just stop that stuff and actually grow up and treat other people respect and listen to a little bit? Jimmy. And I do think the economy will affect I think this this negative talk about MAGA is going to hurt Biden's electoral campaign.
Speaker 1 I just wanted to think back to the 34,000,000,000,000 that that we got, because it it seemed like It when rates were going up and we thought the Fed was gonna keep going higher for longer, it it looked like some of that was coming home to roost because the auctions weren't going well. It's like, wow. Debt service is much more expensive. This is gonna hurt. Suddenly, the pat answer is, wow.
Speaker 1 We're already through that. Rates are coming down again. So the 34 trillion suddenly is Is okay again, and and I don't think it works that way. Yeah.
Speaker 0 It's I think people are making a mistake. I think it is gonna come to bite. You know, it could be in 3 years or 5 years or 7 years. I can may very well bite in the markets way before that because the market makers don't have the cape because the regulations don't have the capability to make markets like you used to. So we can easily handle it, but restricted by, all these rules.
Speaker 0 And you're absolutely correct. If my numbers are right, in 1980, debt to GDP was 35%. We spend 5% of the deficit to because of recession. Now debt to the GDP is a 100%. The debt the the deficit's 6%, and it's in a boom time.
Speaker 0 And, of course, it feels pretty good because we spend a lot of money. It seems to be working. I think governments I started to feel omnipotent in central banks. I'd be much more cautious.