Summary ð´ Restructuring the Debt Beats Inflating It Away - Ep 898 www.youtube.com
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Summary
8160 word summary
the Peter shift show [Music] indeed knows hiring needs to be cost business start hiring now with a 75 sponsored job credit to upgrade your job post at indeed.com Peter terms and conditions apply cost per application pricing not available for everyone Collective Collective is the all-in-one Financial solution for Freelancers contractors and self-employed entrepreneurs go to collective.com to save on taxes this year and have someone setup accounting bookkeeping and taxes even your personal taxes hello everybody this is another live uh Peter shift Show podcast except this time I am doing it from my hotel room but I had one hell of a morning waking up uh very early earlier than I had intended only to discover that my Twitter account had been hacked but not just my Twitter account my cell phone one of my email accounts was also hacked I think it was all part of the same scam I think the intention of the hacker was really to take over the Twitter account out any other damage that was done I think it got started around 3 30 in the morning London time when the hacker was able to convince my cell phone provider to switch my SIM from my phone to his phone so obviously he had some personal information to convince the carrier uh that that he was me and once he took over my cell phone I email but maybe he went into my email and said that he forgot his password and he needed a new password and they verified it with my cell phone which she had and he was able to verify that he was me because he had the phone and he was able to get into my email account of course the minute he got in there he changed all the passwords to lock me out and then was able to probably go into my Twitter account again change the password he had my email he had my cell my Twitter account and as soon as he got into my Twitter account he disabled comments and started promoting some scam crypto token that was in some way and uh began you know sending out a series of tweets encouraging people to go to this website and if you went to the website it was meant to look like it was me that I was behind this thing that I owned it or I started it and um and it invited people to get some know if you got them for free or you had to buy them if it was a giveaway I I that if you clicked on that link and provided your wallet address or whatever it was asking for that it potentially would drain the wallet of your content so instead of you getting some free uh gold token you would end up losing whatever you know Bitcoin or ethereum wherever else you had in your wild I of this stuff and so I spent the morning trying to unravel this mess took a long time to convince uh the email company that that it was me I had to go through all kinds of stuff eventually I photograph and and then they said the picture was too blurry so it was a big deal to just get my email account back for my cell phone it took even longer to wait like two and a half three hours uh in order to get my my phone number back which I eventually was able to do what happened with the Twitter account is that I think Twitter just shut it down because I have not been able to regain access to that Twitter account either because all of the scam tweets have been removed from the account in fact Twitter removed the last two or three days of tweets so there were plenty of legitimate tweets that were mine that were also removed but they removed all the scam tweets so hopefully nobody fell for this I hope the people that follow me on Twitter are too smart to get suckered in to this scam but just you know so you know for future involved in one of these projects in the that way with like these types of tweets so if you see it again you know just you know I was likely hacked again hopefully you know there are a lot of people who thought when I tweeted out about the art that was actually legitimate uh but maybe you know that helped make this look a little bit more legitimate because I had already kind of gone down that path a little bit by doing something related to crypto although this is more related to art I just found an angle to incorporate crypto into the art but maybe it made it less believable or more believable rather uh that I would do something like this and Spencer was one of the first people who noticed it and he immediately sent me some text messages but of course I asleep because it was 4 am in in London even have access to to my phone anymore because once they swap your sim you because you no longer really have a Sim on your um on your account me he was pretty sure that it was a hack and he tweeted out something and then a lot of people picked up on that so hopefully Spencer saved some people because then there was some uh news out uh to uh inform Twitter because when I went and I you know went into the Twitter app initially before I even got locked out which now nobody can get in but I told them that I thought my account was hacked and I had no access and they said okay if the process is get back to you I think they need to have a quicker way of resolving a situation where an account has been hacked especially an account with a lot a million followers and if the hack is trying to scam people out of money you would think that you know there would be some type of prioritization of a hacked account that has a lot of followers uh to you know not just throw it in some gonna get to it in two or three days I mean they should have kind of prioritized it so that they could have shut it down quicker before more people had an opportunity to lose that money but by the way so the the art project to the the artist about it he was a little concerned that maybe people would be reluctant when visiting that site they would think it was also a scam so onemarketprice.com and since I did my last podcast the site has been updated you can now register on the site for the auction uh which I think is going to happen on the 9th of June that is the day that I am going to be live in the gallery in Manhattan along with the artist and the the print or the the oil painting the original there too in fact I think we may be signing them uh live uh at the event very a good location in the city in fact the gallery is open now you can go buy whenever you want you can look at the painting you can look at the other paintings that are on display uh all of them all of which are for sale but the interested in is the gold piece and you can see a picture of that on the uh on on the website as well so that is you put in there is going to be kept with this scam and hopefully I will regain access to my Twitter account and be able to to tweet again but you know difficult for thieves to do this and I who has had this type of hack recently file Twitter hacks in particular so try to better protect my data in the future to hopefully make it less likely that something like this will happen anyway let me move on to some of the talk about on this podcast in particular the market moving uh data that came out on Friday where we got the official employment report the employment situation for May the non-far payrolls numbers and of course that also followed the ADP release that came out the day before on Thursday normally we get that number on Wednesday but we ended up getting it on Thursday so we had back to back uh releases with somewhat different uh results when talk about about that about the market reaction and about the data at the other side of this break so stick around I will be right back these are our hiring aggressive but when everyone looks at you you remain calm why because you know indeed is the hiring platform where you can attract interview and hire all in one place instead of spending countless hours on multiple job sites searching for candidates with the right skills why platform help you do it all faster indeed has streamlined hiring with powerful tools that find you match 80 percent of employers get quality candidates whose resumes on indeed match their job 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terms and conditions apply if you need to hire then you need indeed all right so let me start by talking about the jobs number that came out on Thursday and that is the official non-farm payroll number from ADP and that number was supposed to come out at 160 000 jobs created and the number I actually came out at 278 000 jobs so not quite double estimates but a big number it was well above the expectation which was 150 000 to 200 000 jobs and revised slightly lower from 296 000 to 291 thousand so it was a much stronger number that had been expected in fact earlier that morning we got the Challenger job Cuts numbers and that was a big number you know if the prior month was 66 995 jobs created or eliminated and the the number for May was over 80 000 jobs eighty thousand eighty nine so that was a big number and maybe after that number came out some people might have thought that we would have had a weaker uh ADP number instead of the much stronger ADP number that we ended up getting but again you know looking beneath the surface of that number and you know you see the problems with the number 75 percent of those jobs 208 thousand those are Waiters bartenders uh hotel maids stuff like that I mean these are some of the lowest paying jobs that exist and those are the ones that we are creating you know we lost of jobs those are good paying jobs chances are all those jobs were full time whereas a lot of these jobs that are added in hotels and bars and stuff like so we are trading high paying full-time productive jobs for low paying part-time service sector jobs this is not a good trade-off I think the people that got some of these jobs are not happy about having better job that they lost rather than the two or three crappy jobs that they had to hobble together to try to make up for that loss you know also we lost 35 000 jobs in financial services you know as the manufacturing jobs but they are generally high paying you know the financial service industry is one of the higher paying service sectors out there so maybe somebody lost their job working for a bank and now they got two or three jobs attending bar and waiting tables because you know you lose one and you more jobs but you know the workers getting less money especially if they have to travel between jobs and that you number was strong but you know the down deep they just kind of look at The probably what goes into the algorithms that kick off all the computer Trading and so they saw this stronger than expected number and of course initially Gold sold off the dollar rallied but then the markets reversed we had a pretty strong rally in Gold you know maybe up about 20 bucks 15 20 bucks uh the dollar sold off and I thought you know maybe the markets are finally uh moving past this you know we got a stronger number and you know the market Shrugged it off gold Shrugged it off uh maybe you know the correction is over maybe we flushed out all the week-longs up and you know in fact we got more weak data too I mean the employment data other data did productivity and costs we got for q1 um and even though the number was not as bad as they thought it was still a down number it was minus 2.1 percent on the quarter productivity going down is not a good news even if it if it went down uh some lesson they thought and the reason it was down less was because unit labor thought they were supposed to go up by 6.3 percent and they went up by 4.2 now maybe the markets looked at that as somehow good news on inflation because they saw a lower print for labor costs and they thought that that might be a positive the PMI numbers we got uh came out this was the the main number at 48.4 that was another week number below 50 and the ISM Manufacturing was weak also even slightly weaker than expected it was supposed to come out at 47 and it came out at 46.9 again anything below 50 indicates contraction recession and so prior month was 4.71 but also so we have all these weak economic data that we keep getting why do we keep getting these strong jobs numbers especially the report we got on Friday yesterday from the government because this was an even bigger upside surprise then the ADP number but of course beneath the surface it probably has even more problems and inconsistencies that call into question the validity of these numbers so the expectation for the jobs number for May was 190 000. and the low ends of the range was a hundred thousand and the high end was 265 000. the number came out at 339 000 jobs way above estimates and as soon as the number came out the price of gold tank maybe down about 15 20 bucks initially right away just like the initial reaction to the ADP dollar went up the the reaction that you would reaction that we had been getting and in fact the number was even stronger if you look at the upward revisions to the prior couple of months because we added about 93 million more jobs because of the or not 93 million 93 94 000 93 000 excuse me additional jobs about 93 000 jobs uh were added uh to the prior couple of months so it was an even bigger beat but what was somewhat surprising given all those jobs being created is that the unemployment rate Rose from 3.5 percent to 3.7 percent nobody expected that that was a big jump from the 3.4 percent from the month before and above expectations which were 3.4 to 3.5 so that was bad news about the economy but thinking it takes some pressure off the FED but bond prices fell yields Rose mainly due to the the Top Line the top number being so strong in fact if you look at these jobs numbers that have been coming out this is not the first number in fact out of the last 13 over a year 12 of the 13. have beaten the consensus that it would be 12 out of 13. you times but for it to only miss one time to me that raises eyebrows why are the numbers as strong as they are and again you know if you look at the numbers um the jobs are in uh the lower paying Industries part-time we lost manufacturing jobs not as many as ADP claims according to the government we only lost 2 000 manufacturing jobs so I difference there but it shows you that you know these are not you know actual private sector survey says 45 000 jobs lost and the government says 2 000 right who knows where the truth is or how accurate the numbers are but to me economy if you look at the increase in interest rates that is a huge drag on the economy on the purchasing power of consumers on the profits of business all these new jobs right if this was really this booming labor market why would it be booming when the economy has all these these headwinds of rising interest rates uh inflation pushing up the cost of doing hear all these layoffs that are being announced in financial services in Tech and Manufacturing uh why are there all these jobs again my explanation seems to numbers of jobs not number of workers people are in the labor force because so many people are working multiple jobs in fact the labor force participation rate did not go up at all uh last month it stayed at 62.6 and average hourly earnings were down slightly from where they were the prior month they were at 4.4 percent year over hours work average uh hours work that dropped a bit to on in the economy it makes no sense that the the labor market is really strong and what really called the number into question again was the big Divergence and this is not new between the official numbers and the household survey because according to that household survey there was a loss of jobs in the month of May not again I think 310 000 jobs were lost so the household survey says we lost 310 000 jobs the government says no we gained uh over 300 000 jobs the mirror image of those surveys obviously one of them is wrong and in fact if you break it down they show that about 220 000 full-time jobs were lost and part-time jobs there were even part-time jobs that were lost according to the household skeptical and by the way and I still model but something like 70 percent of the jobs that were created over 200 000 jobs in the government number the official number now what is that well that is where the government just assumes that a certain number of businesses were created during the month and that those those brand new businesses must have hired people and they just attribute a certain number and that was over 200 um thousand people it was a big number few of these big numbers this is not the large numbers but this number contributes substantially to the total know how many jobs were created maybe actually lost maybe the government is assuming that businesses were born but going out of business right now than forming businesses and and and and so I think these numbers are way off and maybe the government is just assuming that these new businesses are hiring a self-employed type thing uh so none of these numbers make any sense to me and so I I kind of take them with a grain of because we got uh another reaction that was even bigger uh than the one we 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dollars in profit a year in fact if you want to make an S corp election and you want to do it this year if you act by June 13th Collective can do it for you and back data to the first of the year potentially saving you thousands in taxes so again act before June 13th to save potentially thousands of dollars in 2023 taxes go to collective.com to save on taxes this year and have someone who setup accounting bookkeeping and taxes collective.com all right well the stock market loved market and some time the Dow finished up a gain of about two percent a little over two percent these small caps which had been lagging they liked it even more they were up three and a half percent on the day so you saw a much bigger uh reaction in the small caps which are more economically sensitive for some reason I guess they really like the strong jobs number because they think but not quite strong enough to push the FED because they probably uh took some comfort from the backup in the unemployment rate and they thought oh unemployment Rising that may keep the least you know a a time out uh you know next rate hike or something so that might have been part of the driver for the movement in the stocks the NASDAQ not quite as strong of course it did hit a new uh high today new 52-week high Highs but it was a laggard in fact the the NASDAQ 100 to QQQ was up less than one percent on the day so the tech stocks uh getting uh getting arrests relative to the rest of the market the sector that got hammered were the miners the gold and silver stocks which did very well on Thursday I mean they when ADP number uh we got a big rally they rally and I think one of the uh the reasons that gold reacted weaker on Friday than it did on Thursday was a we had a rally already on Thursday so you know gold had had rallied but also I think the strong movement in the stock market probably uh got people to lose interest in gold and gold mining stocks when you had such a strong day in the market there has been developing a when the stock market is going down interest in the gold stocks uh and so when the stock market is booming uh then those stocks are going to have a even so much that it was the strength of the jobs Market but it was the strength of the stock market that I think was this kind of strength in the stock market on Thursday and gold was able to Rally in the face of a strong jobs Friday because it also had the headwind of this booming stock market so at the end of the day gold was down about 30 bucks that was pretty much the low of the day I mean gold was down and it fell all day it never really recovered it any kind of rally at all following the initial drop after we got that jobs report in fact it was just a slow and steady grind lower for the rest of the day silver also down gold below 1950 on the week 1947 but still you know I think holding in a narrow range that to me is the next move up the dollar did rally but you know it sold off the day before so the two days combined were about a push the dollar Index closed the week just above 104 I think at 104 spot 03 so I still think that the news is bad I all the other evidence that confirms in recession people keep saying how can in a recession where people are forced to take more jobs because the economy is so weak and prices are so high they more jobs and so those additional jobs get reflected in these job numbers that a strong economy is an economy where you can get by with one job in fact you can do more than get by you can save more and also if you look at the numbers manufacturing numbers again losses in the manufacturing sector we just got that bigger than expected merchandise trade deficit I talked about that all the ism PMI numbers and Manufacturing all very weak economy that is producing less and therefore relying more on Imports means inflation because those deficits are going to have to be monetized regardless of the position the FED is taking now so all this stuff is negative uh whether or not the Traders can recognize that right fundamentals are going to Prevail we are in a weak economy High inflation environment weak economy strong are everybody is in denial but over time the markets are going to have to accept you have an opportunity to move more money uh you know into the defensive assets the assets that will do well in an environment where you have inflation where you have weekly economic growth foreign stocks Commodities precious metals I think the opposite really of what you saw today where you had strength in in U.S stocks and weakness in Commodities although oil prices I had a good day and oil stocks did well it was just the the precious metals uh that were sold off but I think those are the types of Investments that will do well when people get their arms around this reality now also you know people are still celebrating I guess that the debt ceiling crisis is over you know since my last podcast when I talked about it before I did a podcast on Wednesday and it was that evening that the House of Representatives was Voting to pass the fiscal responsibility act which raised ceiling it was even less responsible than that they suspended the ceiling so the sky is the limit right now for the next couple years and they had the nerve to call that fiscal responsibility even though it was the height of irresponsibility but when I started doing that podcast pretty sure that they were going to pass house passed it and since that time the Senate has now passed the the debt ceiling hike as well and I said that was pretty much a formality I knew that was going to happen and so now it just needs um um president um to put his John Hancock on that bill going to sign that bill and uh and so maybe breathed the collective sigh of relief because this contrived crisis was over but again it was not a crisis the debt ceiling was not the crisis the crisis is the debt the ceiling was trying to contain that crisis trying to mitigate that crisis and so what we actually did is we removed uh the protection that we had as minimal as it is uh and we allowed the real crisis which is the debt to get bigger and bigger and bigger and you know I get asked a lot you know what what would be my solution I mean what do we do because debt ceiling all right well then what do we do the problem with my solution is that no politician would dare propose it because the crisis that it would create personally for the politicians is the problem in fact the real reason that raising the debt ceiling was a crisis it was a crisis for raise it they were going to be forced to face reality they were going to have to go back to their constituents and tell them the truth that the government pay all the commitments that they made to win the votes of the people who elected them that was the crisis it was a crisis of having to be honest with your constituents and no politician wants to be honest so that really was the nature of the crisis it was a crisis for people and and so Congress had to raise the debt ceiling to eliminate that crisis so it can go back to business as usual continuously promising something for nothing and having and not having to deal with the consequences or any kind of Day of Reckoning my solution is to deal with the crisis for the crisis to explode right and have the markets force you to do the right thing because when the markets force you lot more painful than if you you know grab the bull by the horn and you decide preemptively to do the right thing without being forced to do it by your and and what do we have to do because you know as I mentioned before if you look at the numbers the government is collecting what is it like four four and a half trillion something like six trillion dollars and then actually going to look at the debt clock and and see what the actual numbers are I should have probably had this up on my screen before I started started this to the national debt clock and you can and you can see the numbers right they tell you what the US government is what uh the the spending is but if you look at the total tax revenues for the United States let me see where those are and so the debt deficit is 1.6 trillion but again that that excludes a lot of off-budget stuff so you really have to increase think that number counts the the spending it says yeah actually it says spending is a little bit less so maybe sure that the deficit is going to clock in at better than two trillion dollars not the 1.566 trillion that is being estimated by this number but you know even those numbers are enormous but there is a huge problem between revenues and expenditures that needs to be fixed right now according to the National Debt already a few hundred billion above it have a feeling that as soon as we have the official increase that number is number above 32 trillion in debt very quickly uh headed to 40 trillion over the next few years because it is completely unpayable so what has to happen is that government has to cut spending dramatically you 30 to 50 percent of the federal budget interest rates which are now almost what a trillion dollars a year now on interest expense I mean right now according to the uh this uh US debt that the number is already higher than closer to a trillion dollars a year in net interest payments and that number is going to explode as more of the short-term debt matures and has to be rolled over and as we borrow all this a couple trillion dollars a year all of that has to be financed at five percent short term um maybe the government will try to do longer term debt because the yields on the you know the 10-year basis points so we have this huge problem that needs to be solved so we need massive Cuts in government spending not the Mickey Mouse you know phony cuts that we agreed to which Exempted National Defense Exempted Medicare Medicaid you can exempt the biggest line items Social Security is about 1.3 trillion dollars a year Medicare is 1.6 trillion a year and National Defense is just going to get worse so what the politicians have to do is make these substantial Cuts in entitlements and I think the best way to do that would be only way to do it uh so that people who are completely dependent on Social Security are still going to get something but the anything now a lot of people say well government has to admit that all the Social Security taxes that were nobody is entitled to anything because all you can do is Rob the Next should young people today be taxed so that older people can receive benefits these politicians that that embezzled all this money the older people and they got the benefit of that money because as the government was spending their Social Security money in theory they got all that government right they were supposed to leave the Social Security money in some trust fund if it was if it was legitimate but again the problem was the trust fund had to invest all the money in U.S government bonds right how convenient because all the money that was collected for Social Security was then loaned to the US government that spent it and so because it spent all that Social Security money cover it but then of course there was no money set aside to cover Social Security benefits it relies on the Next a Ponzi scheme but once you recognize that Social Security is a Ponzi scheme younger people to contribute into that impossible for them to ever to collect by forcing the Next Generation into the an end but you have to figure out how to take care of people who would be left need to do over time we need to let the young people off the hook we need to abolish the payroll tax completely so that people can are free to save for their own retirement you know the the reason we have social security the reason that Roosevelt came up with it is he they thought that you know people want to arrive at retirement with no money and so the government was going to take care of it for them well the people would have saved something right if you security taxes the people paying those taxes at least would have saved some of the money the government saved none of it the government was worse at saving than any individual could have been because the it all and of course originally when Social the self-employed right that took decades before the self-employed were subject to the tax and the reason for that was that you know Roosevelt and Congress back then thought that if you were smart enough to run your own business well then you were smart enough to save your own retirement so there was no reason for the government to force you into a retirement plan but if you were a worker right just some thought and so those were the people that the government was going to uh forced to save because they were too dumb to do it on their own but also the way they impose the tax of the tax was paid by the employer and so the average voter thought they were getting something for free because they were going to get these Social Security benefits but they were only going to have to pay for half of them their employer was going to pay for the other half so the voters like that because in their mind they were getting a deal but if they tried to impose the tax on so there was no reason to include the self-employed because they would not see that as a benefit to them because they would be paying for the whole thing and so you know there was no votes to be won because nothing was being given away but the employees were duped into thinking that they were getting something extra from government because where do the employers get the money from the employees you see if and the government imposes a payroll tax and now you have to pay extra money to the government for everybody you hire as the same thing as paying money to the is concerned about is the total payroll costs which would include all taxes and mandated benefits so whatever you have to pay to hire somebody those are your labor costs you just assume paid all to the worker but if you have to divert some of it to the government well then you have to pay the worker less because the worker has to cover all of his costs with his productivity and so at the end of the day the tax the employee pays a hundred percent of the payroll tax he just has some of the payroll tax deducted before he even sees it because the employer just sends that money to the government instead of sending it to him or her and then of course there is the official deduction so the whole thing was a scam to begin with you never got something for nothing and the reason they eventually you know roped in the self-employed was by you know Social Security was broke they were running out of money and so they needed another source of tax revenue and so they eventually included self-employed people who then of course have to pay officially both halves of that Social Security payroll tax which is now combined with Medicare about 15 percent but we really have to get rid of that but we need to kind of take Social Security and means test it and people think well that would make it into welfare but in money to pay social security benefits really comes from the same source as the money that pays welfare benefits from some fund is a bunch of lies because even if there are government bonds in the Social Security trust fund in order to turn those government bonds Into Cash that can be sent to Social Security recipients the trust funds have to sell those bonds to the public or to the FED that prints money but that would be the same thing that they would have to do if they had no trust funds the trust funds gigantic welfare system and so we need to treat it like a welfare system and stop pretending right that the people who are getting these benefits are entitled to them because they pay taxes you paid the Social Security tax was an income tax so you just paid that income tax in addition to your regular income Social Security benefits back then your tax your income tax benefits or you know any other taxes that you might have paid that the government spent but you know there are a lot of people obviously Security taxes and of course there are a lot of people a lot less wealthy than Warren Buffett they could get by with without their social security I think the the means test you know should be a function of uh assets too not just um poorer people should subsidize the inheritance of wealthier people right because there are a lot of people who die right with plenty of money plenty of assets and then they leave them to their with quite as large in a state and so inherit as much you know you have a lot of people that want to have a an estate tax I want to eliminate the estate tax I want zero estate tax but I do think people that have a lot of money should spend that money before they die rather than give it to their kids are going to inherit nothing should have to pay these payroll taxes so that richer kids can can inherit you know a a bigger uh a bigger windfall right so that would level that playing field in a much better way than an estate tax just force people who have a large net worth to live off of those Investments rather than uh taking money from uh younger but I also you know recognize that when the government has to come clean and tell a lot of people that were not going to get what you expected anything and obviously we could do other things like raise the retirement age and different things to minimize uh Social Security expenditures that are coming out right now and Medicare too but also I think the government has to level with pensioners people that used to work for the government are going to have to be told that they promised because they were promised too resources to live up to these commitments and so rather than forcing future taxpayers to pay for commitments that prior taxpayers we have to bring the obligations down in line with the ability of the tax base to to get what they were promised yes of now I also recognize the political that the U.S government should tell big a pension as they were promised Security or any Social Security they were promised right all these government promises are not going to be kept but bondholders are going to be made whole that people that own U.S treasuries are going to get everything that they were you know especially when you think about it in political terms a lot of the people that own U.S treasuries live in China right or the Chinese government the Japanese government Europeans why are we going to make them whole and give a haircut to Americans who are still a commitment right the government is just as obligated to pay interest in to make uh payments that it committed to uh for Social Security Medicare right legally it might be a little different because legally nobody is entitled to entitled to anything you know regardless of what the politicians want to say when there is no real entitlement to anything and which is proof again that you just insurance plan you paid a tax it up and marketed it but equal opportunity to falter and so I think that in order to make this work and I think for it to be better for the economy we need to restructure the national debt we actually need to default now as what I was talking about before we raise the default we we could have prioritized interest on the debt and just substantially cut everything else I think that would be think we should prioritize repaying principal on the national debt I think we should restructure the national debt and bring it down to a manageable number I think we have to admit to the world we maybe the United States government has to tell everybody that owns U.S reasons that we need to do this is because we need higher interest rates where they are right now are still not high enough rates have to go higher but what are the barriers to higher interest rates is the enormity of the debt that we have and the inability of the government to pay those higher interest rates on the the balance so the only way the government could afford to pay seven eight nine percent interest is if the debt is a lot smaller well the only way restructure it if we default on it result in a downgrade of our credit sure even if that means our credit rating drops but in reality if we repudiated half our debt and at the same time cuts those security cut Medicare cut the military and balance to borrow any more money we balance the budget who cares what our credit rating is does it matter right our credit rating is only important if we have to borrow the government can leverage taxes if the government wants to do something then simple as that the reason the voters are willing to accept so much government something for free if every time Congress had to propose a new program they had to come up with a means of paying for it and they had to present at the same time here is this new program are the taxes that are going to go up to make it possible most of the stuff the government if if they have to get a bill they only want the government if they think somebody else is going to get the bill or nobody is going to get the bill but also I think that the best thing that could happen to our creditors is a restructuring certainly the ones that are going to hold the bonds to default or a restructuring but if you own 30-year Treasury and the government does what I think we need to do which is an honest restructuring we cut spending across the board entitlements interest you know the principle on the debt we balance our budget right we do all those things inflation right in fact the dollar might gain value remember the natural tendency for a productive free market economy and we would be far more productive if we eliminated all this government and eliminated all this debt and of course we can also eliminate a lot of rules and regulations that bring in no Revenue to the government but deprive the country of a lot of productivity if we make all the free market reforms that I would like to see enacted value of money is going to go up so even if you get paid 50 cents on the dollar those dollars could be worth a lot more cents or 70 cents because prices have gone down and the purchasing power of your money has gone up alternatively if continue to live in denial if the government continues to pretend that going to get a crew cut people are going to get you know shaved people are going to get you know Mohawk by inflation Integrity to honestly default and these obligations through inflation and I believe everybody including the bondholders will take a bigger loss due to inflation than the one I would impose due to a restructuring because even if our creditors collect a hundred cents on the dollar the dollar might only be worth 10 cents there could be a 90 loss in purchasing 50 reduction will result in far less significant real losses the only difference is the losses happen now people have to recognize it now and the politicians have to be held responsible to happen because no politician wants to be held responsible for anything nobody wants to create a crisis that they can postpone till after the next election because they may not win they may not be in office and if there are an office well then all they care about is staying in office for another term and so this is not going to happen right all we are going to do is print money the debt ceiling will be no limit on the debt have a real crisis right the crisis is said we will borrow any money that the lenders are dumb enough to loan us the crisis is going to come when those dumb lend us any more money and the only collapses because the dollars that podcast I should be uh back in the U.S in from the UK before I return and hopefully I will have regained access to my Twitter account by then bye for now thank you