Summary E140: LK-99, Sclerotic establishments, Fitch downgrades US debt, Trump indicted... again - YouTube (Youtube) www.youtube.com
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Jason Whoa. Whoa, whoa. Sa found the gel. Oh my guy. At this guy, he's running for office.
Jason If he shows up with a red tie next week, we're fucked. That's the end of the show. He shows up with a red tide a blue shirt. Are you coming out of your law retirement? Are you gonna be an active lawyer defending Trump?
Sa Sa you look really good. I gotta say with the with the jump. That was that's a really good.
Freeburg That's got a shower used a comb.
Jason Oh, the weekly shower, Italy?
Freeburg Good luck Right?
Jason Yeah. It's not a bad luck. Did you use soap?
Sa That you you
Jason know. Oh.
Freeburg No. I didn't have time.
Jason And have 90 seconds.
Sa Yeah
Freeburg I didn't wanna keep you guys waiting another 2 minutes. When your winner ride.
Jason Rain David sack.
Freeburg And to
Jason of Alright, everybody Welcome to Another episode of the all in podcast It is August and we just might have had the most consequential week in terms of politics and science. A long time, could be could be the week of the year. Free burns has been going nuts inside the group chat because Everyone Is Trying To Replicate This L k 99, Room temperature semiconductor experiment. Super doctor. Yes.
Jason So god. I mean, this has been... What's it been, like, 10 days, and now everybody is on Twitter, Trying to recreate this. Maybe should just let you queue this up free Berg since this is the first time perhaps the last that we're gonna start to show at Science corner. So science gonna take over a week.
Jason Tell us is this legit? Because you flip from this as a fraud to this is changing the world. So Like, every day, you you seem to have a new piece of evidence. Where where are you today with this? Is this The reason
n/a I mean, probably it's probably somewhere. In the middle, but it leads to a path that could get us to the holy grail, which is room temperature, super conducting which we've talked about twice on the show before and I encourage folks to go look at the episode we did a couple ago after the original drill claim was made a few months ago, that turned out to not be true. But the description in the paper that came out on how to make this material was chased by hundreds of labs around the world over the last few days. Folks have been live streaming it on these Chinese websites, billy Billy and Twitter and Twitch everyone from Russian scientists to Chinese, to Korean, to American to European. I will say 1 thing that I think is really profound, which it is...
n/a This is the first time in a very long time that I've seen so many people share a unified voice about optimism about an abundant future, optimism about a big breakthrough rather than get on social media to share a voice about fear and anger at someone or something. And to hear everyone around the world get together, and be excited about the potential of this discovery in its applications. It's really profound to see and it's really amazing and wonderful to see Now where we are, a bunch of labs took the described chemical structure of this material L k 99, which has led in pho oxygen and some copper in it and put it into these modeling systems. These computer modeling systems to try and understand where did the electrons flow? Where did the electrons sit in this material?
n/a If this material is made the way it's described? And 5 different labs have now published papers. That show that the way that this material is supposedly produced it should create these pathways or these energy states with the electrons that theoretically could enable super conduct connectivity at a very high temperature. And so that's in a very confirm signal that computer modeling of the electron clouds because remember electrons even though they move around the nucleus of an atom, we only kind of have a probability statement of where they are. So if you look at all the probability statements of all the Atom stuck together and you try and figure out what's the aggregate probability of where electrons are, It indicates that there are these pathways that theoretically could allow for electrons to move freely through the material and be completely void of any sort of resistance, which is super.
n/a And and for And so that's what's really profound about the modeling outputs from 5 very separate independent labs.
Jason Chi so we're clear. When electricity normally moves down an electric wire or in computers and Cpus, Gpus, whatever. There's resistance, that resistance results in loss, it results in heat. And the only way we've been able to reduce that loss, is by making it freezing cold, like significantly cold.
n/a Totally right. Yeah.
Jason So next 1... If we were to do this when we Didn't have to Make A Cold. That means it these super conducting experiments move from The Laboratory where it's forced to Be called to the Real World. Our desktop, you used an analogy in chat. That was really interesting of, like, a super conducting road where...
Jason And and then you don't lose energy. Right now, how much energy do we lose trans bring you to our houses.
n/a Right. So, you know, I would say on the order of 70 percent of energy we produce is lost to heat and friction bringing Think of it moving a car down the road, when you move a car down the road, you're having to put energy into overcome the friction of the car hitting the road. So if the car could hover above the road, the friction goes away and the energy needed to move the car goes way way down. When you build a data center, the electrons that are moving through the copper and the semiconductor bump into other atoms, when they bump into the atoms in the material, they shake those atoms. When atoms shake that is heat.
n/a So that's why a copper wire heats up when you put electricity it, You're moving electrons through it. Some of those electrons bump into the copper atoms, shakes the copper atoms, they get hot. And then some of the electrons make their way through. The rate at which electrons are bumping into other atoms, is the resistance of the material. So...
n/a And so so all these energy is going into cooling down data centers and all this energy is lost in computing to heat. And same in in electric motors could be reinvented. Semiconductors integrated circuits would be reinvented. And like I said, If you had enough of this material, you could put it in roads and because super conductors also reflect magnetic fields, you could put magnets on the bottom of cars and float them above the the ground. And cruise around without any friction.
n/a And the of
Jason true, this 70 percent loss of... And then all this energy put in cooling data centers, we could be looking at doubling or tripling the amount of energy available because we've built a certain amount of energy infrastructure. So this would be all gains if we could figure out how
n/a to Yeah.
Jason Whatever technology. Massive gains and massive abundance it would lower the cost of electricity by 10 percent, a hundred percent?
n/a I mean, look, assuming me huge infrastructure investments, which would take probably decades to do. Sure. You would you would get there. But in the near term, there are these incredible applications, quantum computers are built using little super as the q. And so the super conductor holds the Q state.
n/a So this idea that we could now have room temperature quantum computing is also very profound 1 game changer. Low cost and and the first thing that would be changed is likely electronic components. So we would take electronic components and redesign them using super conducting material, that would allow you to reduce heat loss and energy loss and that would have a big transformative effect on, for example, the big effort right now to make more Ai chips. Gpu chips to do matrix transformations.
Jason There is some Precedent for This. People are now creating optical bridges between Gpus and Cpus in order to reduce the heat. So they're using optics basically light to transfer
n/a Interconnect. Yeah. Yeah.
Jason That's been the big lift right now from what Understand in Gpus and data centers is
Sa You still have the for data. Yeah.
n/a It's... It... I mean, we could go on for hours on that, but, like, I Yes. I mean, this would just be a game changer in electronic component?
Jason Photon chips. Right? Yeah.
n/a Photon chips. But look, this is obviously a little bit separate. But here's where we are. So l k 99, there's all these simulation models that show this thing could work. But there's 2 2 things I will say came out of this from some of the simulations.
n/a The first, Is remember this is a crystal with mostly lead atoms, and these lead atoms, some of them get replaced by copper. And when when they get replaced by copper, it causes the crystal structure to change by 0.46 degrees is what the Korean say, the angle changes by 0.46 degrees. And when that happens, that bending causes the electrons and all the atoms in the crystal to overlap slightly and that overlapping effect causes this free flowing electron tunnel. That then that is the theory for why the super conducts. Now, what the simulations showed is that you have to replace only 1 of the lead atoms, not any of the other ones in order for this to work.
n/a And that could explain why everyone's having different results in the lab on produce this. Because when you bake this stuff in an oven, if the copper gets into the wrong atom space in the crystal, it doesn't work. They And so that's why some of these things might end up looking good and some of them don't look good and some of them there's a lab yesterday in China that published. No resistance, but they had to cool it down to a hundred degrees below freezing. And so it wasn't at room temperature, but it did super, it did have no resistance
Sa 1 70 kelvin I think is where they come.
n/a Yeah. So a hundred self a hundred below 0. So other there is
Jason a key. There's a key here in the molecular structure that you have to just thread per.
n/a The right. You have to replace the right lead Atom with the copper in order for this to work. And so that's a technically very end what happens
Jason a fidelity issue, that's a tool issue. Like, you have to have the right tool to do it? Or is it luck or... Right now?
n/a So so here's the crazy story. And tell you this, I don't know how real this is. But the guy's claim... So remember, these 2 scientists Leigh and Kim. Supposedly saw this material in a lab In 19 99.
n/a That's why it's called L k Lee Kim 99. And so in 99, they came across this and they could not replicate. And they had no idea how to make it again. And it disappeared and they didn't have the sample again. They then spent the next 20 years of their life.
n/a 1 was a college professor and the other 1 worked for Lg for as a battery engineer, and they just had these random normal everyday lives. It reminds me of Dennis Kw in the movie, the Rookie where he had like, this amazing arm and he was gonna go the Ml, And then something happened and he spent the rest of his life as high school ge teacher. And then 20 years later, he gets his arm back, and he goes to be and he plays in a major league baseball game. Because all of a sudden, during Covid, these guys got some funding, they set up a company, they went into a lab and they rediscovered this material. And apparently, this is the rumor.
n/a I don't know if this is real. The rumor is they had it in... They were baking it in an oven in a vacuum sealed cube. And when the guy took it out of the oven, he accidentally bumped into a table in the tube cracked. And when the tube cracked, it did something to the material, and then they measured it and oh my god.
n/a It's temperature super conductor. That's like the current theory of what the rumor of what happened is a video.
Freeburg That's like Peter Parker being bitten by a radioactive. Spider. I mean, doesn't a make it sense.
n/a Yeah. So here's the drama. This guy Kwan got inserted to oversee them. It's like their Cto. The guy that gave the money to Q center said he's got to oversee you.
n/a Quan apparently got fired from his job in March and he was kicked out of this company was no longer affiliated. And the rumor is that Quan took all the lab data and these guys in 20 20, during Covid, they discovered this. They started filing patents and working on the manufacturing process. To figure out how to replicate it and do it again. Say had all this data, but they weren't gonna publish it, they didn't want the world to know that yet.
n/a And then all of a sudden Quan gathers all this data probably disgruntled after getting fired. Puts it do a paper and puts it on the Internet. So that's the first that came out
Sa because Yeah.
Jason There a website called RARXIV. Is there a pronunciation for this website?
n/a So this is where you can open source file scientific papers. Right?
Jason Okay. So this is a place for... It dropping papers outside of the The traditional journal.
n/a Yeah. The the traditional journal process requires peer review, and there's editors at the journal that decide whether or not to publish your paper. So sometimes gatekeepers. Yeah. Gatekeepers.
n/a And so if you don't wanna do that, you just wanna get a story out to the world right away, So during Covid, everyone was publishing on the site, while their updates on research, they were doing to help the world... Figure out what's was going on with Covid. So it's a great place to just hit the world with your data, hit the world with your findings.
Jason This is like acoustic raw papers, and it's called archive. ARQU dot org if you wanna go see it.
n/a Arc... So anyone anyone could publish a Pdf. No 1 knows if it's real or not, it hasn't been peer reviewed, etcetera. So this guy kwan. Yeah.
n/a So Quan drops the paper, with his name, Lee Kim and Kwan on the paper. Only 3 people can win a Nobel prize. So the theory is, he did this to get his name out there to make sure he could lock in his name for the nobel prize. Wow. Then within a day, Lee and Kim and 4 people they've been working with, but some including some folks in the Us.
n/a Publish another paper with better data, but it was also rushed out. And so both papers are pretty ugly. I gotta be honest. They're like, pretty messy, They don't have a great deal clarity. There's errors in them.
n/a There's mistake. There's redundancy. There's little basic chart editing errors, stupid stuff. Clearly, this was a rush job. But these guys rushed out and said, you know what, if this is gonna be public, we now have to correct the the the story and say what happened.
Jason They wanted to get their claim in to get their Noble peace prize, which would indicate that would lean towards a piece of evidence as would people funding them 25 years later, that would indicate maybe there's something there.
n/a 2 things worth noting on the simulation stuff. Number 1, obviously, you gotta get the copper in the right place. And the production way to do that? How do we actually engineer that to happen? It's not really clear baking it in an oven clearly is creating what's called heterogeneous results.
n/a Meaning everyone's getting different results around the world that have been doing this for the last couple of days, and everyone's really confused is this real is it fake? I don't know. But that simulation explains why there's maybe be lots of different results. Another comment. It turns out that 1 of the simulation team said, hey, if you put gold instead of copper, in the spot.
n/a It's a better super, could actually be a better material. Oh. So it's opening up all these paths for exploration that we had never considered before that there's this whole new approach to creating super conducting materials that was not on anyone's radar before. So this is opening up a whole new realm, and I think this is gonna unfold over the next couple of years with more material discovery, more invention coming off of this initial discovery and simulation model that then up offers all these other opportunities for creating potentially new materials that maybe are easier year to manufacture and better to produce. And the final thing I'll say is that there are some teams that are commenting that are saying that this thing may be super conducting, but only on 1 dimension, which means along a line of atoms or line of molecules in the material.
n/a So normal super think about them as like A3D matrix. And the electrons can flow through freely through any direction through the matrix through the crystal. And in this case, they're saying the electrons can only flow freely across a line in this material. And so now there's another question of wait. How do you manufacture lots of lines to run parallel to make this thing truly super conducting at scale So that's all the hard technical stuff that's emerging right now, whether or not this actually does turn into a room temperature super conducting material that can be industrialized.
n/a And use in all these applications everyone's really excited about. I think it's probably months to years away from knowing. But at this point, there's a great set of indications that oh my God, We might be onto something new. There's a whole new path of discovery, a whole new path of engineering and invention, and it's amazing to just see everyone gather around this and get so excited about it because it really will change so much about the world and create extraordinary abundance and prosperity for humanity, if this proves to be real and industrial, it's scalable. Sham.
Freeburg Can Can I ask a simple question here? When you say if this proves to be real. If nobody has reproduced the result, why is there any beliefs? That this is real.
Sa There are properties of this that you look, I think we have to take a step back. We have found super conductive materials in the past. But There are many ceramics that are super conductive, is super conductive. There's all kinds of elements and materials and compounds in the physical world that we've already figured out how of these properties. So this is not like a new thing that's never been found with before.
Sa It's just this idea of trying to find it of at a certain temperature where it could exist naturally in the normal world without all this expensive cooling. Okay. But there is a separate thing, which is that we also have found a whole bunch of materials that look and behave like super but are really not. They're what's called just dia. And I think right now, what what people are trying to sort out is Is this a clever dia?
Sa Is this dia? Or is it super conductive? And these are huge differences? That swing this from... Yeah, It's kind of a cool thing.
Sa And, yeah, whatever there's a bunch of other materials we found there like this too. Wow. This is transformation. And right now, we don't know any of that. And I think that all of the mystery around this is mostly because people can be on 1 side of the debate or the other literally by the second based on what new simulation or what new piece of research people are putting out there.
Sa But you have to remember like, dia is like a property of matter, super conduct is a state of matter. It is totally different. All super are dia, but all dia magnets are not super conductive. So we could just be extremely excited about not much of anything. Or this could really be a breakthrough time.
n/a If what the Chinese guy said is that they were able to cool this thing down and get it to be super conductive, then that does
Sa once it's decay, it doesn't mean much in my opinion.
n/a Right? It's not room temperature, but it does indicate that this material can be super productive.
Sa There there are many materials like this There's like a lot of forms of red matter that we've already found that at that temperature gradient at that range of temperatures can be super conductive. It's not practically useful at that point.
n/a Yeah. That's right.
Sa I don't think you're gonna see like, some massive revolution. So on the betting man, I make bets... I think that talked about when there was this guy run the Diaz that had to try this stuff, and he was sort of refute and what he was working on. But 18 months, that happened, I was trying to get a deal done with University of Rochester to buy all that Ip. So I've been grinding in and around this space for a couple of years.
Sa Before My intuition on this is that this is dia. And I think and and I think we're gonna find that, you know, it was It's like yet another material added to the list of materials and it's okay. But hopefully, what it really does, is it is it sparks an interest in and a lot of other people putting more money behind.
Jason Nick, if you could pull up this man markets. There's a prediction mark called man dot market. That people have been sharing a link from betting markets where people bet either side of this will l k 99 room temp ambient pressure. Serving conduct connectivity prep print replicate before 20 25 and you can see it's about 30 percent chance. You you what do you think of the prediction markets assessing this?
Jason Pre bert?
n/a Yeah. I think Levin probably that's probably a good handicap for where we are. I'll say, when you look at a dia material. And so what that means, a dia magnet will expel magnetic fields of both polar polarity. A para magnet will...
n/a Reflect the north or the south pole, its north pole will reflect the north pole of another magnetic material. Right? Dia magnets you can put north or South Pole and they reflect both. And there's plenty of videos you can watch of putting a frog in like a 10 tesla machine and the frog floats. Technically a frog is dia.
n/a But what happens typically with dia magnetic materials is they orient themselves why they're while they're freely floating into a particular direction. So there's gonna be 3 things people are gonna be looking for in terms of confirm proof on L k 99. The first is does this material float like a super conductor over a magnetic field. Because remember super perfectly spell magnetic fields. They are dia magnets to the absolute degree.
n/a They perfectly reflect all magnetic fields. So if you put a super conducting material above a magnetic field that should kind of float freely and spin around and stuff. If it orient back to 1 position, it probably means that there's something going on. Where it's maybe not a perfect super. Now all these video...
n/a The second thing you're gonna look for is 0 resistance. So can you actually pass an electric charge through it and have no resistance in the material. So you're seeing data coming out now that's indicating. We're seeing that but we're seeing it a low temperature, No one's yet replicated this at room temperature. And the third thing is a transition, which means that there's a point where it shifts, because that's a classic...
n/a Characteristic of super conducting materials if there's a transition temperature, transition phase where the material becomes super conducting or it's not super conducting. So those kind of generally those 3 experimental proof points of what everyone's looking for. Thus far, the videos we've seen look like Ufo or big foot videos. They're freaking grainy. They're like, you know, you guys have seen some of these videos that have come at?
n/a They're like, at a distance. It's like, wait, Why didn't you do the whole angle? Why didn't you only take a picture? Why didn't you do the video? There's this woman in Russia, who's
Jason are not Ufo territory. People are.
n/a Look at this. I mean, yeah super... Like, there's a... There's a little flake of... I hear the video of a little flake of a material that someone supposedly made in the lab or it could be done.
n/a Right They put it over the super... The over a a very strong magnet. This is the video they got it super blurry. There's a woman in Russia, and she totally reinvented the manufacturing process. She's actually well known scientist so she's not Bs.
n/a And she said, I made this thing in my house using a furnace and I used the whole new process. So she does this whole new process. She live streams the whole thing. And then she puts out a video of the thing floating in a straw. Sorry, a video photo, and it's a blurry photo and people are like, show us the video show us that's real, and she's refusing to.
n/a So this whole thing is feeling a little like there's Ufo, big foot type people out there. That we're not really seeing clarity on is this real. And then obviously, the resistance data, there's very credible academic universities coming out. And I will also say there are a number of labs. There's 1 in China And the 1 in China that measured the the the 0 resistance at negative a hundred degrees, they created 8000 samples.
n/a So they found 1 that worked. There's another lab that did 8 different pathways of manufacturing it in China, and they said we can't find any that work yet. So, you know, there's a lot of negative indications as well, which is why the prediction markets are probably right. But I do think that the theoretical explanation, that you have to get the copper Atom to replace the correct lead atom in the crystal structure explains a lot of the heterogeneity result the reason why people may not be able to replicate this. And if someone could crack the code on how do we actually engineer this thing and produce it correctly based on the theory, then maybe we'll see different better results.
n/a But again, that's also theoretical because no 1 seems to have nail a manufacturing process here. So lots of data coming in every day, by next week, we could be clapping and, you know, cheering or, you know, we could sort sort of be on this very long grind sort of like Russia Ukraine. Just a long grind. And it's a it'll last years and maybe someone will win, maybe someone won't or maybe he just opens up a whole new set of exploration, for new super conducting materials at room temperature that could change the world.
Jason I gotta say the thing I love most about this is like, we have this Oppenheimer film comes out. And at the same time, this happens, We got Ufo testimonials, you know, in congressional hearings, all of this energy at the same time. Of People who Are Just Really Stoked, Do Material Science To Do basic science To figure out Big problems. And I Agree with you. The optimism around all this.
Jason Is is...
n/a I mean, how something else. Tell me something else in our lifetime. In our in the last decade or 2, where we've seen the whole world say in a positive way, something great could happen. Instead of something bad could happen and someone's to blame for something. I mean, it really is, in my mind, The first time I've really seen this happen in a very long time.
n/a Maybe the Internet was... Was it...
Jason I would
n/a say the kinda great
Jason 1 came to Yeah. Yeah. Everybody being connected, everybody being able to share information for all
n/a information on Twitter and Billy Billy and Youtube and, like, all sharing this stuff. And saying, my gosh, we could have this breakthrough together as a as a civil as a species, not like a country, not a individual, not a who messed up, who did something wrong, who's to blame Who's on the other side? It's like, dude. If we all dude... If this happens, we're all gonna be, like, Chilling on the beach It's gonna be amazing.
n/a Like, this is awesome. Gonna have
Jason we're gonna have a a rash of Vcs running into this. Next? And start funding with stuff, material science.
Freeburg Yeah. I mean, my attitude is kinda like, wake me up when you know it's real.
Sa Mh.
Freeburg Because the, it's nice that if this is real then Yeah. It's great that there's all this positive energy around it, but that's like a big caveat. Until we know that there's something real here, I think it's premature for everybody to say that this is like some wonderful thing. Now, if we find out that the science is real and then just a debate over commercialization of it, then, yeah, I agree, that would be like a really positive moment.
Jason Just love the fact that when something positive in the world happens or when something negative happens. We have this amazing platform for everybody social media x dot com formerly Twitter. Where Everybody Can Get together Around This camp fire and just Start discussing It and speculating. Now Some People Don't Like Speculation. Obviously, if there's a school Shooting or A tragedy.
Jason A building burns down, the fog of war we've seen in the constant Ukraine coverage. You know, you can have it's very easy to make mistakes when you're watching this stuff in real time, but I love the real time nature
Freeburg of the
Jason than the pace we're moving at. It's it's kinda delightful
Freeburg to me. Problem with the spec galatians and there is a fun element to it. But when you start talking about investing in it. Like I said, Wake, when you know it's real... There's a really funny meme that Vc Brag posted.
Jason Nick... Shout, Vc Brad.
n/a This is good.
Jason It's This is a famous meme of a kid drowning.
n/a That's so lots so.
Jason The mom is playing with another kid and not paying attention to the drowning kid sort of like. The guy who's holding hands with his girlfriend but looking over his shoulder and w that. The other woman lie and super is the happy little kid. Vcs is the mom and generative of Ai is drowning. But then they show him the underwater.
Jason Yeah. Somebody who's tied to a chair which gains of scalable type cycle. Yeah. Last time cycle. Create economy crypto m 3.
n/a Yeah. It's
Jason pretty funny. It's pretty.
n/a I will see I I told cha about this when we were in Italy last week. But when I was 13 years old, Jake can make front of me now. I did a science fair project on semiconductors.
Jason Chili, I was doing him. When I was 13.
n/a And I bought this super conductor from the back of popular science magazine, you know, this old atrium bar copper oxide. That was the 1 that won the nobel prize. You could buy for nothing. And I got liquid nitrogen in Ucla and I did a demo at the Science fair, and I did a poster board and I... I had hyper card on a Macintosh Lc.
n/a And I showed everyone This is the future. We're about to have room temperature super. It's about to happen, and we're gonna have flying cars and we're gonna have limitless energy and limitless. Battery storage for energy by the way, which is 1 of the big applications. And it's it's just on the brink.
n/a And this was when I was 13 years old, 19 93. You know, here we are. 30 30 years old. 30 years later. And everyone feels like this moment might be upon.
n/a But it has been this thing that's always been elusive. That everyone's always thought it's around the corner.
Freeburg Well, it sounds like cold fusion. You know? We've always done. 10 years away for some breakthrough in cold shoes.
Jason Self driving cars, artificial general intelligence. Yeah?
Freeburg Well, I think there's a difference between this physical world material sciences, type innovation and then software innovation. And 1 of peter till critiques is that We've had tremendous innovation and software, but in every other aspect of the economy, there's been little snow innovation. Planes, for example, are getting slower, not faster.
Jason Would you believe that position from from him? III don't buy that
Freeburg position Oh I mean, with the exception of, like, what Elon? Has been doing
n/a with The genomic resolution. He he misses life sciences early in that 0
Freeburg don't know. I mean, genomics. I mean largely software based point.
Jason If you
n/a look at
Jason the non revolution driven by
n/a Gene editing, oncology, the breakdown(24. I mean, look, it's still slowing down, I do agree with him at this If you look at the number of approved drugs every year and the cost per drug... Cost per drugs going in the wrong direction, and the number of drugs per year is going in the wrong direction, So there is an argument to be made there, but there there are arguably some quantum leaps in the types of medicine that we're applying. We didn't have biologic. You know, 40 years ago, we didn't have gene therapy 10 years ago.
n/a These are new modalities for for therapies that didn't exist. As we've engineered the the molecular world to do, amazing things in the biochemical application space. So I think there's elements of this that I disagree with. But I think the general trend lines as he points out is totally true.
Jason But with planes, I think we made a conscious to... He always cites the plane issue. Hey, We don't have the Concorde corps. We're going backwards in terms of speed. I think that was a deliberate.
Jason Cost cutting measure because people aren't willing to pay to go faster and burn more fuel.
Freeburg So A innovation, the price gets cheaper.
n/a That's right. That's right. Same with with energy. Electricity is getting more expensive, not cheaper.
Jason But if you look at the mass, if we wouldn't have the massive gains in artificial Intelligence And Machine learning, If It Hadn't Been For The Revolution in Gpu storage and Data centers And micro processors and
Freeburg the I but that's of the point is that we were promised flying cars and instead we got 2 or 80 characters. Not that twitter slash x is bad, but that's just where all the innovation has been as an It.
Jason That I agree with you.
Freeburg So they figured it out. They keep figuring out how to put more circuits on a trans stir whatever and, you know, keep moore's law going or... I don't know.
n/a I could show you use.
Freeburg But
n/a good... I could make a different argument by showing you human lifespan. And agricultural yields. I mean, agricultural yields continue to climb because of our ability to engineer in in a smarter, and better way every generation there. There's a...
n/a There's a lot
Jason of say.
n/a Counter gets I
Jason would say what's valid about it is, we... Go ahead.
Sa I was gonna say the reason you we don't see these kinds of innovations is because the ruling class has clogged up and sporadically dominated all the places where you'd have this massive forms of innovation.
n/a Like, and regular regular. Yeah.
Sa Not or no not. No. No. No. That's like charge A that's like a boo man.
Sa So get the monkey man out the regulatory captures there forever. Like, why was this paper published on arts? Because every other form of publishing mechanism is It's establishment. It's hierarchical. It's about people basically dominating their own little forms of pe.
Sa Right? And so nature jam, all of this stuff works this way. And so what happens, You don't get fundamental innovations that happen in the labs. You have things that feed research proposals that feed people who need to basically establish their supremacy. You saw the Stanford professor get booted up because of stuff that You know, He...
Freeburg The President of Stanford.
Sa The President said. So why is all this happened? Well, Peter is right. The reason why this Stuff has Happened? Is that instead places where true fundamental innovation can happen.
Sa If you look at the nobel prize winners and you do distribution by age, what do you find? But People went nobel bells in their sixties were work but they did in their twenties and thirties. Right? And so you have a system now that rewards people staying in their positions. I wrote this in 1 of my annual letters.
Sa If you look at the average age of, like, leading people in schools, They're like 70 years old. If you look inside of Congress. So there there's all of this stuff that just kind of sporadically prevents, young naive people from basically going out and really pushing the boundaries in specifically this case of science, a fundamental science. And so for every innovation, I think the question to ask is what other innovations are we missing. And if innovations are on a fundamentally...
Sa Well established pathway that defends a bunch of work of senior people before it, it'll get supported. And I would say that genetics is a perfect example of that.
n/a The other if you
Sa look at the... If you look at the number of rare diseases that have still that are still like unsolved or the lack of understanding of I disease. It's just crazy like, it's... I just think that that's really what's happening. I think Peter's more right than his wrong.
Jason The other issue here Sa is. And I like to get your feedback on this is, if you look at how venture capital works, you got a 10 year window, you want to get returns for your Lps, You look at how this Fundamental Research, We just said this started in 19 99. That's why it's called dash 99. This thing Took 25 years to Get To this point. Is is part of this issue that you have this big opportunity zone between say Ventures window, 10 years.
Jason And then academia, which you put at, like, 4 decades they're come off 20 you know, year olds getting their rewards in their sixties. How much of this has to do with? We Don't have a platform in between Venture. No academia.
Freeburg That's not the problem. I Mean, So it's true that Vc... Funding, typically you want to go to the commercialization of an idea and that the underlying platform shift already exists, and usually, that comes from some sort of breakthrough that happened in academia. I mean, that's basically what happened with the Internet. So, yeah, you do not want Vc funding typically going to basic R and D, you know, fundamental science R and D.
Freeburg It's this really expensive takes too long and too unknown. So you want that stuff kinda done more at the academic level. The question I have is how much of what's happening in academia is basically either a irrelevant or fraudulent. So Jamal brought the Stanford President I think the the story there is he had 5 papers about Alzheimer's research and, you know, related topics like that. Where they found out that the papers are basically bogus and Quasi fraudulent.
Freeburg So how much of the with the work that's being done in academia, I many these papers are basically bogus.
Sa Well, the thing with Peer view is like it's presented like it's like great incredible solution to world's problems. But I think what it has inherently wrong with it. So the positive part of it is theoretically you have error correction. Right? But here, what you don't find is that that error correction actually even happened.
Sa And so it takes like some young 20 year old. Kid at Stanford, who's a journalist whose family or journalist to basically figure that up. So instead, what were those... What were those papers doing? They were supporting a arising up and coming person because they thought that, you know, he would support them at some point.
Freeburg This is like the whole corrupt fauci system at the end of the age.
Jason Trade, they're Cha and Sachs are presenting academia as corrupt. Do you agree with that? I don't know
n/a if corrupt is the right term because I think that implies Mall kent. I think that the incentives are wrong. So in order to get funded, you have to show results, No 1 gets a grant to disprove someone else's work, no 1 gets a grant, to do confirm work on someone else's work. Should a grant. You get it...
n/a Yeah. I mean, that's that's the argument that that some folks make. You get a grant to do breakdown(24 research and have breakthroughs. And if you have breakthroughs, you get more money. That's the way the system is set up.
n/a But this is why this guy. This is why... Well let me try corrupt.
Freeburg I think so it's corrupt.
Sa There's no funny breakthroughs. Come on.
n/a Okay. Whatever you wanna define it as, the guy the guy at Stanford, if you read some of the testimony. From people in his labs. They said that he encouraged people to have big findings. And if you get big findings, you get to progress in the organization, you get more funding, etcetera.
n/a So the the incentive structure that he set up for people was not necessarily to go in and disprove stuff or try something and show that it didn't work, if you try something and show that it didn't work and publish a paper on that, It's gonna be very hard for you to turn around and get a trophy. Or get some money or get did.
Sa There was like a bunch of error and the data that they went back, and we're were like, hey, this is this was incorrect And he's like, oh, yeah. It was sloppy. I just didn't do a good job of reviewing it.
n/a So... Yeah. So what happened was if you read some of the testimony, the people that worked in his labs, the students and the the graduate students and so on. They said that he basically encouraged people to get good results. And in that process and in that way, there was some fuzz in the data or some tweaking of the data, that he didn't double check for sure.
n/a But he was encouraging this sort of system of performance. And the system of performance says you've gotta show results. You can't show non results. And if you show non results, there's no money.
Jason And there yeah. The reason they're doing that is marketing. They want to market. And get more attention so they get more donations?
n/a Yeah. Exactly. The problem with with a pure research is that you have to get funding to do your research. Where do you get your funding from? You get your funding from federal agencies, from profits, from your, you know, your donors.
n/a And so in order to get that money, You have to say here's what I'm gonna do. Here's not what... Here's... You don't say I'm gonna go not prove something. You see say I'm gonna go prove something.
n/a No. No. The problem Is
Sa you're hiding the cheese can. Pie the cheese. That's not what these people are saying. These people are saying, I'm not gonna approve this You like, most of these people are working on very thin incremental extensions of work that's already been done because it allows them a more defined path, to get 10 ship to be a well respected professor to work through the hierarchy of a university. That's what's happening today.
Sa And the reason why that stuff gets funded is that those are the same people that are in charge of the funding infrastructure and Nih and all these other places. What we don't have, Is something that says, go and write the most ambitious proposals and I'm gonna go fund funded.
n/a Yeah. I think both things are true. I'm sorry. Good mechanism. I'll just say both things are true because what you're saying Cha is a point of failure.
n/a If you say I'm gonna go try something crazy. Like, do a search for a room temperature super using lead crystals. You're not gonna get funding for that. It's 2 out there. I mean, you guys today are talking about how low probabilities isn't that interesting.
n/a I'm not gonna fund it until it's real. And so when things are real, you have some molecule that has some effect on cancer cells, then you get funding to stuff make that molecule go to the next phase or go to the next stage. That is more fungi than the outlandish crazy thing where the probability of it going to 0, is 99 percent.
Jason You could throw Elizabeth Homes into that. Right? I mean, she came up with this absurd idea that she could do 200 tests on 1 drop of blood. And they
n/a that wasn't obscure research. That that was just the statement about engineering that wasn't ready And
Freeburg Another company, it just got funded to do the same thing if there and promises gonna do. Do you see this?
Jason But I did not say that now.
Freeburg Yeah. I mean, some pretty good Vcs invested in actually. And they expressly said, we know this is the same idea as there knows. But for that very reason, Think it's very unlikely to be fraud because it's being held to such a high standard of scrutiny.
n/a I want about it. But I want you guys to think about this as Vcs. We an entrepreneur comes to you. And the entrepreneur she says, I've done this thing. I did this thing.
n/a I did this thing. I did this thing I did this thing, 5 different things. None of them work. I wanna have money to do this next thing. You're less likely to fund that person than the entrepreneur that shows up and says, The first thing I did work.
n/a The second thing I did work, the third startup I did work, they weren't home runs, but they should have to it. And I had good results. That's basically what happens in in, you know, the scientific research. Is you've gotta get something that's fund and often that means not doing something that's likely to go to 0 and that's where the incremental comes in Chu up. Is that orientation?
Jason I hate to give my playbook, but 1 of the great successes I've had is finding people who got their asses kicked on the last 2 companies. Think talking to them about why they got their asses kicked and then how they're gonna avoid getting their asses handed to them with this third company. Then if you look at Travis with Uber, He did scour. Got got, you know, sued for a quarter trillion dollars. He did Red Sw.
Jason He got, like, a 30000000 dollar exit, then he did Uber. Right? He is... First 2 Companies Were Very hard. Steve Jefferson And Future Ventures.
Jason He Took His Venture fund and He Told Lps, It's A 15 year term, Not 10. So He specifically, First is trying to do a little bit of a longer window. I think that is actually a possible solution here.
Sa I think smart independent thinkers find ways to make money. I've been looking at this super space for the last 2 years. And so it's not like people are shy and have money and aren't willing to write the checks. I just don't think that's what it is. The body of work that's coming out of academic institutions today for the amount of money that's put in is modest.
Sa And I think that's the best way to describe it. It's the ferris way. And the reason is modest is not because of the intellectual capacity of the people. It's because of the incentives and the hierarchy and the... Establishment elitist politics that infuse how these organizations are run.
Sa And I think the only way to break that apart is to basically disrupt who is in charge of these institutions. Nick just throw up this chart. These are people that for decades and decades and decades are in a grind, and who are now in control. And so what is the incentive of these folks to explain the change?
n/a Yeah. What is this?
Sa This is a chart that I put together, which is just the generational distribution of academic leadership across all the leading research institutions in America. Okay.
Freeburg Well, is it isn't fauci a prime example of.
n/a The birth here?
Freeburg No, Listen. You had the the most important person... Hold on second. The most important person. Probably in the federal distribution of grants.
Freeburg And the medical field was fauci, Right? He literally was running the nih since the 19 eighties, He's been there for 40 something years. And the mass was peeled away during Covid, and we saw how much power he wielded, really, I think in a corrupt way. Jason Used work corrupt. You had that letter to the lancet that he got a whole bunch of scientists to sign.
Freeburg That claimed that Covid was not made in a lab. That was a conspiracy theory that the only place it could have come from. Was the sort of the zoo na leap naturally occurring from animals. We know that he used his power over grants to basically pressure those people intros!(0 signing the letter where they thought it would be in their interest to do so. Even though Fauci had already been updated by a bunch of scientists that it likely had come from the lab.
Freeburg They could just look under a microscope and see hearing cleavage sites, which all the telltale sign So they knew that the thing likely came from a lab. There was no basis for calling it a conspiracy theory certainly. And yet the the whole whole thing behind that.
Sa But sac did you see
Jason the Slack messages where they were trying to manipulate the New York Times Science writer. I mean, they basically...
Freeburg Question you have to ask is why were all these scientists wanna go along with this side that left the lancet?
Sa Good Because these guys have been grinding for 40 or 50 years in a hierarchy. And so the all of a sudden put a pin in it and just say, you know what I'm gonna dispense with all of it. And now I'm going to basically, like, be completely open minded. Likely was that the odds That were very low. Look look at the number of people who have basically grown up in 1 segment of society?
Sa How that are sporadically in charge of every single leading research University in the United States. That is why we don't have flying cars. This is why. Because after 40 years of working in a specific hierarchy being rewarded in a very specific way with a very specific set of incentives. When some young dash 22 year old naive person writes an extremely ambitious research proposal, you're like, no, you will not be a part of my lab to do that.
Sa You can do this incremental thing that that further reinforces my leadership and society. That is what this charge shows.
Jason But Yeah. It's also per reverse inside of government. We didn't talk about it. I don't think last week, but mitch Mcconnell... I don't know how to say.
Jason But I guess it froze wall. Speaking, and, you know, we gotta have a upper 8
Freeburg for the Dianne Feinstein thing, remember when
Sa she started
n/a flying started
Jason the speech.
Freeburg And their staff Whispering saying, just say I. You know, she starts going down. This F buster. Know. We have a political system run by oxygen veterinarians because the boomers are not re political power.
Freeburg Fucking Not really pushing bureaucratic power. Can we just pull up this lancet letter for a second? They say here's Zoom it on this. The rapid open and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened. By rumors and misinformation around its origins, we stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theory suggesting that Covid 19 does not have a natural or.
Freeburg How could they say that at that point in time. All the evidence suggested it was made in a lab. Now certainly, I think you could take the other side of that, but to condemn The lab theory as a conspiracy theory that was corrupt.
Sa I'm not sure that that's. You know what's corrupt is not retract that and apologizing. The that's where the real corrupt.
Jason We have not gotten our post.
Freeburg Lance lancet letter was organized. It was organized. This is just like the 51 spy who lied. Claiming that the hundred buying laptop was disinformation. This is the establishment willing to use its credentials, and respect and expertise.
Freeburg To sign a letter they know is false. To trade a fraud On the American people in order to protect the people in charge. That's a motivation here, because Fauci had funded gain a function research. In the Wuhan lab.
Sa I think the same route that is in some of these leading research institutions and leading academic institutions and politics, they all share the same commonality, which is we are. We are in desperate need of a generational shift to power And right now, there is no incentive. Because at the same time, you know, the people that are 70 80 are thinking of yourself all probably gonna lift to a hundred, What should I do for the next 20 years? Being in power is pretty good. Right?
Sa So we're we're in this weird clash.
n/a I was thinking a lot about the fiscal spending problem in the Us. And we should talk about the Fit rating downgrade that happened this week I've got some data I'd like to share. 1 thing I was thinking about was how tied the age of congress is to our fiscal spending problem. If you think about someone who's young, they're gonna want to invest for their future and think about the future, If you're someone who's old, you live for the day, and you don't think about the future. And I worry so much that the aging of the establishment that makes the decisions about how money is spent, creates a a cycle to to.
n/a Yeah. We're positioning that's all about giving away all the money today. Instead of making the right decision to make sure that we have a prosperous tomorrow. And that's why I think so many of these things kind of slip through. If you put a 20 year old in charge, that was well informed in charge of some of the fiscal policy environmental policy, energy policy decisions, defense policy, it would be a very different set of decision making than someone who's in their aid.
Jason Inheritance stacks. Yeah. Yeah. I mean...
n/a So anyway, we should talk... Let you wanna talk about the fit downgrade? Because I think it's a really important story this week.
Jason Fit the rating agency. Downgrades the S. Long term debt. By 1 notch from aaa to Aa plus. Only 9 countries have Aaa ratings from the top rating agencies, And p Global Fit and Moody's.
Jason Those are Germany Denmark, Netherlands, Sweden, Norway, Switzerland Luxembourg, Singapore Street what you can Take from That is, You got Have a Good balance sheet and you have to have high functioning. Governments, the Highest functioning Governments. In The World Are The Nordic. That's why you see. Denmark Melvin Sweden and Norway There.
Jason According Npr, The Negative Reaction Hasn't been as strong as 20 11. That was the first time the Us was downgraded from Aaa to aa plus by the S and P. That also had to do with the debt ceiling. The market kinda shrugged off. Largest shrugged off the fish downgrade.
Jason Main reasons for the downgrade is obviously it's higher interest rates, aging population, the Debt to Gdp ratio, which we've talked about here. But government kept coming up. Over and over again and how dysfunctional our government is. The debt ceiling is 1 of the key manifestations of that. Your thoughts on this for the first half of the show, Free bug, you're an opt, but are you now going to switch to the finest?
Jason I wouldn't say decline is. Are you gonna switch to decline mode now? Or are you still an optimus mode?
Freeburg I mean, in Jake view, unless you're a cheerleader. Every student government policy. Finest.
n/a I know. It's it's a... Jake listen it. For I wanna be honest, I I don't think so. I think he like and I I concur.
n/a I think you can highlight that there were concerns with Us fiscal policy that are putting us in decline in our spending spiral. The Us currency reserves, which there are now diversification efforts underway, and I'll talk about this In 1 second. And that doesn't mean that the Us isn't the most exceptional place to do engineering and and have freedom of speech and thought and so on. But there are elements of the Us that put things at risk. So let me just point out these 2 charts.
n/a If you guys pull the first 1 up, this is a a pretty striking chart and I think I show this before, this is federal government interest payments that are being made. We're now up to, you know, a trillion dollars The chart as you can see a year has spiked And by the way, that number is spiking further and we'll talk about this in 1 second. As a result of rising interest rates and increased fiscal spending, So this is now becoming a pretty sizable part of our budget. And as of now, paying the interest on our debt is a larger capital outlay for the federal government than defense. Spending.
n/a The second chart shows what happened in the last week, which is that 30 year treasuries have been sold off and as that's happened, treasury yields have climbed spending So there's been about a 10 percent decline in pricing and a, you know, concurrent 10 percent increase. And Bill Act you know, basically said today. That he's shorting 30 year treasuries, He thinks we're gonna go to 5 and a half percent long term rates. Currently the 30 year treasury sitting at 4.3. And remember, I told you guys this after this thing, I went to a few weeks ago, that there were 2 prominent economists who shared that they think we're going to be facing long term rates in the 5 to 7 percent range.
n/a Very long term rates for a very long period of time. That it is a new fiscal regime. And then if you pull up the last link I sent, Nick, this is a report made by the Treasury borrowing advisory committee of the Treasury department. And I just want to read a couple of quotes from this report. This just came out today, and it was published...
n/a It was sent over to the secretary of the Treasury yesterday. And it said since the advisory committee convene in May 2 year treasury yields are about a hundred basis points higher, well 10 year treasuries have increased by about 40 basis points. The bank holdings of non mortgage backed government securities, mainly treasuries. Have actually declined by a hundred and 46000000000 so far this year. That means banks are selling off their treasuries.
n/a The committee goes on to say, at the same time Treasury investors have noted the treasury supply will need to increase to address the rise in public deficits as tax revenues have come in weaker, and government spending has increased. Issuance needs will be additionally impacted by the timing of the recession so. Then they said, based on the marketable borrowing estimates published on July 30 first. Treasury, this is crazy. Treasury currently expects privately held net borrowing.
n/a Borrowing of 1 point 007 trillion dollars in this quarter with an assumed end of September cash balance of 06:50, and then they said we expect another 852000000000 dollars of borrowing next quarter. That means treasury is gonna to try and issue and sell 2000000000000 dollars worth of treasury bonds in the next 2 quarters. That's 2000000000000 dollars of new borrowing by the federal government to pay our bills. At the start of the year, they were estimating 1600000000000.0 for the year, which was an insane number. Now we're talking about 2000000000000 in just 2 quarters.
n/a So rates are climbing as a result, we need to borrow more, and this is a perfect manifestation of the death spiral problem that we've talked about multiple times. Our fiscal spending outlay and the rising interest rates combine to create an insurmountable debt spiral that is now manifesting in the fact that we need to sell 2000000000000 dollars of treasuries. And here's the crazy statistic that they said. In reviewing recent demand for Us treasuries in auctions, The committee noted that an increasing percentage of supplies being absorbed by investment funds, while foreign participation has remained range bound. That means as we're trying to sell more treasuries, governments...
n/a Federal foreign governments are buying fewer of them, which means that the Us currency as a reserve. Is no longer the place that everyone wants to plow their money as much as it used to be, it is in climb. Now the other thing I want to share, which I think is is absolutely critical is how do we address this gap? Well, the 1 way is these entitlement programs. And so several Republican presidential candidates Nikki Haley, Ron Des and Mike Pence have all publicly stated on the the campaign trail that they're promoting programs, to cut social security benefits for people that are 30 and 40 years old.
n/a And here's the response to that. So so they've gone out and they've started saying that. A poll was done. And on that poll, 82 percent. A voters oppose the push, to cut Social security for Americans under 50, 82 percent.
n/a So where is this gonna take us? This is what is so scary to me, J. I'm not an American decline? I believe in the American system. It benefited me and my family.
n/a But I do worry that we find ourselves in a whirlpool that it's very hard to get out of because the populace says we don't wanna make the cuts that are necessary in order for us to save ourselves. That's what's so scary to me. And I said it before, I think it's worth saying again. That's it. I'm done.
Freeburg It's not a problem with pop. I mean, the elites are saying it too. There's no appetite. In the Dnc to cut or reforms social security you kidding?
Jason It's very unpopular. How do you get how you get elected?
Freeburg Why those are republicans
Jason How do get elected? Saying.
Freeburg I I hadn't seen that article. I would advise all those campaigns not to touch that rail. They're gonna electro themselves. I think Trump has the right political instincts on this point, which is you cannot touch the security as a single party effort. It has to be bipartisan.
Freeburg And there is no bipartisan will to do anything. So I think you're you're right about the larger point.
Jason Cha, your thoughts on Freed birds manifesto that... 80 percent of the public does not want to cut spending. They're in favor of social security for people under 50 years old, and we have a trillion dollars in debt payments and we're in a debt spiral because we were
n/a borrowing 1000000000000 in a hundred and 80 days, we're borrowing an extra 2000000000000. That's the end. And And
Jason the fiscal end of days
n/a at the at the start of the year, the the expectation was there we're only gonna borrow 1600000000000.0 for the year. Now we're borrowing 2000000000000 in just these 2 quarters.
Sa Let me just state
n/a what I think about the Downgrade.
Sa It's irrelevant. The S and P did a 13 years ago. Fit is a marginal credit rating agency. They're at a minimum 13
n/a minutes late.
Sa At a maximum. They're just anxiety like, other people are receiving that this guy is true. So that's my first point. The second point and the more important 1 is that I none of you who are always freaking out about this understand This conversation about re isn't. All of these conversations are relatively and deal
n/a with the
Sa in. On a relative basis, Japan's debt to Gdp is 270 percent and growing. On a relative basis are debt to Gdp is half of that. We are the most important economic force in the world. It is going to continue to be the most economic force in the world and all I see actually on every single monetary basis is every other country struggling more than beyond.
Sa So my question to all of the Chicken Little is I What do you do if you're a central government, where you have to have
Jason foreign reserves? Do you all
Sa of a sudden double down on the euro? Do you double down in the yuan, which is basically a proxy for being for doubling down in the Us dollar. What are you supposed to do? And I'd never get a good answer because on a relative basis the Us will still continue to do well. I think that debt to Gdp is a red hearing for a lot of people.
Sa And I think that the way that people run their personal lives, which should take income to debt into consideration. I don't think applies as much to governments. And I think these things are gonna march forward as a group. There's not gonna to be a single Ga country that all of a sudden moves away and starts printing surplus. It happened almost as an accident an abe admiration during the Clinton administration.
Sa It'll never happen again. And I think that we shouldn't worry so much. Because I just don't see an alternative. So give me... Instead of telling me how bad this is because you think about your old life and how would be bad if you add debt to Gdp of a hunt.
Sa I get it. As a country, give me the alternative country. But just start with that, can you answer that question, what is the alternative country.
Jason Yeah. Where would you put your your wealth if not the dollar?
Freeburg Well, let me paint a scenario. That's not as dire as a collapse. Of the Us dollars world's reserve currency. Okay. So on this fit right That's
n/a not that's not what I think happens. Right? I I think this is just purchasing power goes down. That's it. But go ahead, Sex.
Sa Relative to who? Peace anyone. But what is? What does that I mean relative to anyone?
Freeburg Let me paint like a non catastrophic. Scenario or non apocalyptic scenario, which is what you saw in this Fit ratings downgrade is that the bond market did move at the margins. There was a sell off in the 10. It's And as a result, the 10 bond moved up to 4.2 percent. So it wasn't a case of everybody shedding all of their Us treasuries.
Freeburg Is this that there were market actors at the margins who adjusted their portfolios. Okay? Now, Free is saying that the treasury is gonna have to do another. 2000000000000 dollar bond offering. And we have trillion dollar plus deficits as far as the I can see.
Freeburg And we've got entitlement liabilities on the horizon. And then A political willingness to do anything about it. So the deficit is only gonna get bigger and bigger. Now what does that do? It's supply and demand, when the Us treasury needs to keep issuing more and more bonds at some point, the demand for those things gets incrementally saturated.
Freeburg And they have to offer a higher yield. So what happens? Well, the bond rates go up and so the tenure goes up, like Free was saying from 4.2 to somewhere in the 5 to 7 percent range. And that doesn't mean that Us dollar is not the world's reserve currency, it just means that it gets incrementally harder and more expensive to keep financing our debt. Now what is the result of that?
Freeburg Well, if I as an investor could theoretically get 7 percent from the Us treasury as the risk free rate, Why would I wanna take equity risk and put it in the stock market which historically is yielded is somewhere in the 5 to 7 percent range. So if I can get my 5 to 7 percent from a risk for Us government bond, of course, I'm gonna do that, So the discount rate on equities will go up. That means that the stock market relatively on a relative basis will go down.
n/a Risk capital will go down. Real capital
Freeburg go down and there'll be way less risk capital available for things like venture capital and private equity. Does risk taking of all kinds. And so the economy will just grow slow. It's not like there'll be a collapse. It'll just be this Yeah.
Freeburg Huge alba. Yeah. Around the neck of the private sector. And this is called crowding out.
Jason Here's. I'll give them may I give a counter here? I think if you look at the amount of sovereign wealth funds and the investment coming from around the world into Us venture capital? That will keep the venture machine cranking here in America. But 3 charts to just look at here.
Jason Nick, pull up the first 1 the 30 year Fed. So to counter This Argument. Really The Abe operation Has been 2010 to 2020 When We Had you know low single digit mortgages, 3 percent 4 percent The majority of our Lifetime It was Between 5 and 10 And If it 6 up in the 5 to 10 Jesus that... That's what we experienced for most of our life. And then the second chart, this is the lowest unemployment we've had in our lifetimes.
Jason If you look at the unemployment rate in the United States, 3.6 is unbelievable. And then combined with it something we've talked about here for 2 years that we can't understand is when do all these jobs burn off? We peaked. You know, during the post Covid era at about 11000000 job openings. And then, you know, we're still over 9.
Jason So for there's, 2 or 3 job openings for every American who wants to work and we've shut down the borders largely even though we have some illegal immigration coming in. It is basically shut down the United States immigration. It's about a third of what it was before Trump and by me so
Freeburg to shut down. They were looking at the same video that that I'm seeing.
Jason Yeah. If you're looking at videos, those are very distracting. I would encourage you to look at the numbers of the actual migration into the country. It's a third of what it was.
Freeburg To see what's happening in New York City. They got lines around the.
Jason Caught up and clips on from the border. I would just look at the raw numbers sacks. And the wrong
Freeburg number The wrong numbers.
Jason Yeah. Because we count them, and we we copy the.
Freeburg We have to estimate them because they're illegal, but they got 7000000. I guess. I would rather
Jason with the numbers and the actual statistics then anecdotal videos because both sides will manipulate the heck out of them. For their own purposes. But the fact is Americas just crushing it in terms of employment. And that's why we didn't have this crash landing and... And I think this soft landing is because of employment, and I'll just end there.
Jason And if we can keep ourselves employed and everybody from the Middle East to Japan, soft to high net worth individuals in Europe are pouring their money the Us venture ecosystem. I think the setup here is we got a control spending as you've said correctly Free. We get a little bit of control on spending hopefully. And then we are gonna have to look at burn off some of this. You know, debt.
Jason We... A little kinda debt payments.
n/a Here's all data. This is from congressional research service off of Fed data. So foreign holdings of Us treasuries have declined from 40 percent to 30 percent of total treasuries. 70 percent of treasuries today are held by. Domestic investors.
n/a This is the data that was being described in the Treasury advisory committee, the borrowing advisory committee letter that I just said is that they're seeing less demand from foreign buyers of treasuries. Now I can argue we can argue theoretically about what else are they gonna to buy, What else are they doing with their money? I don't know. But the the data is showing a decline in purchasing intention by foreign buyers of Us treasuries and we're having to pick up the Slack through investment funds held by the Us. Mostly pension mostly retirement funds, I would guess that are buying these treasuries.
Sa That is not what is chart shows, that chart shows the effect of quantitative easing. That's what this chart shows. Because when you're buying treasuries from the market and retiring them, Of course, the percentage of foreign domestic holdings of publicly held debt is gonna go down. So this last period explain this x sub Q explained it.
n/a Sorry. I don't understand what you're saying.
Sa This is a measurement of the amount of people that own treasuries. Is that right? Domestic versus foreign?
n/a Yeah. So who who owns... So as of December 22, there was 22 silly.
Sa I'm I'm gonna assume... Because this chart is fucking worthless if this... If it doesn't assume... So that the domestic holding, the gray bar that adds up 200 doesn't include the fed, which it must. And that is because the fed has been buying treasuries.
Sa From the market.
n/a Okay. So just... Let me just give you the numbers for a second, and then we can take out.
Sa I'm just looking at the chart. The chart is that says domestic. Stick holding.
n/a I'm gonna give you...
Sa There's an orange bar that's says fore holdings. You've had 10 years of the the Fed buying to Treasuries.
n/a I'm gonna give you the numbers. There are 24000000000000 dollars of treasuries publicly held treasuries outstanding. 7400000000000.0 held in foreign hands. The foreign holding of publicly held debt between December of 18 and December 22, intros!(0 from 6300000000000.0 to 7400000000000.0. While other investors intros!(0 from 16000000000000 to probably 23000000000000.
n/a So, you know, it's... We're having to pick up the Slack, investment funds, Private investors are having to pick up the Slack because of foreign demand for treasuries, lagging at this point. That... That's the point of Picture.
Sa I I don't know what I don't want to tell you that... I think but this chart tells me is that the balance sheet of domestic holdings grows girls because the fed has been buying treasuries and in N. In a world of QTI suspect that this bar chart will change in the next 10 years. If you look at the His instagram 10 years from now, if you assume the Q t sticks around. So I don't know.
Sa You can interpret whatever you want to feed your anxiety. It doesn't change that there's a relative problem at hand, which is you cannot sell 1 thing with a buying another. That's just the way it works in financial markets the numbers.
n/a The federal reserve during that same time period increase their treasury holdings. Here's the exact numbers. From 9... 3700000000000.0 to 9700000000000.0. They bought 6000000000000 of that debt.
Freeburg I think the fact that we're gonna go from quantitative easing to quantitative. Tightening over the next decades, another overhang. But because not... Whole I'm saying because not only does the Us government to sell another 2000000000000 of tightening bonds every year to finance its deficit, which basically the addition to the debt. You've got the Fed now shedding what, like, 8000000000000 questions.
Freeburg Not.
Sa They're just letting roll off. They're letting them roll off and they're not rei them, but you actually said the right thing earlier. Which is that the risk premium has been shrunk so massively between equities and bonds. These 2000000000000 bonds that these guys will issue that between the strip will trade from 5 percent all the way down to. There'll be a line out the door.
Sa I guarantee you. And the reason why exactly what you said before David, which is like why not own 5 percent paper from the Us government versus having to like all of a sudden speculate on the B 500 or something else. A no brainer, and I totally agree with you. But that... This last 2000000000000, that'll be the easiest to trillion to sell.
Sa There will be a line out the door. It's guaranteed.
Freeburg Well, there's a line off the door at some price. So my point is that the yield will have to go up to attract those incremental buyers. And as the supply of t bills becomes a glut. Obviously, they're gonna have to make the yield more attractive in order to keep attracting that marginal buyer. It's just that simple.
Freeburg So, yeah, at some price, they'll be able to find a buyer. But that yield, have to get higher and higher over time and then that crowds Private investment? Because why in the world would you invest in a risky stock when you get 7 percent is free.
Sa What's your alternative? Because again, like, what do you think the spread to J b's is gonna be if that's true. If if Us treasuries? Okay? If 30 of your treasuries are all a sudden 5 and a half of Bill Ackerman.
Sa Right? Which you could very well be. The other part of what he's not saying is what did J look like? What are European bonds look like? You know what they're gonna be?
Sa They're gonna be trading at 300 to 500 basis points above that. It is cataclysmic for the entire world economy. And so we all move in Unison, When we suffer, we will suffer less than other countries. And when we win, we will generally win more than other countries. That has typically been true, I suspect will typically be true, And I don't see anything changing.
n/a Well,
Freeburg hold. Let's assume that you're right. And what happens is that the... Let's call it the Western world, and all these governments strip basically mir in debts with a few exceptions, I guess, Australia's is good, Switzerland good, but the rest have massive debt to Gdp as well. So their bonds have to move up with ours.
Freeburg And so their risk premium has to go up as well. So you're right in locks up with the Us. But now why wouldn't global growth just slow down. Across this call it this whole western dollar complex.
n/a Coupled with inflation, coupled with inflation. Right. Which is inevitable.
Freeburg That's basically what's happened in Japan. Right? Is that they have, like, a 200 percent debt to Gdp and they've been very active and you'll curve control. And so they've controlled the interest rates, but the price of that's been total inflation which is the pro that to declare demographic problems as well.
Jason But that's the main issue there. See young people there... There's just not a lot of young people there. I mean, there... Housing is crazy.
Jason But if you just look at it. And I think the United States has a lot of innovation. So we will innovate our way out of it is is my belief, which is... Of...
n/a You know what's so exciting guys. We can have this conversation with Larry Summers himself. At the all in comment. Right They.
Jason Wait. Do
Freeburg we have
n/a plus kind we have ray audio. Yeah.
Freeburg Are they gonna be on our panels together? Or are we really intend to discuss this topic with the 2 of them?
n/a Maybe overall? Look at the schedule. Everyone... Unfortunately, all our speakers are tight. Schedules on when they're in and out, which is why I need Jc to respond to my I am to him about.
n/a Finalizing some of our other speakers, but
Sa Hey, Jimmy texted me because I... Apparently he's in, like, London or he has to
n/a in London.
Jason I gotta figure out
n/a how to get him back. Yeah. Yeah. He said he'd fly up, but we gotta figure out how to do that. But, yeah, we can have this conversation?
n/a In La, September tenth 3
Jason twelfth. Later. Well, it's sold out. So way to frustrate everybody. I'm getting, like, all kinds of, like Lps and in giant folks are like, can I buy a vip ticket?
Jason I'm like, listen, it's sold out. You had 2 months to do that. So in other news, The Gop lead candidate for The 20 24 race donald Trump has been indicted. For trying to overturn the 20 20 election and stop the peace will transfer of power. The indictment has 4 counts and is the third criminal case for those of you playing along at home.
Jason 4 counts include conspiracy to deprive the U Us. Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding, obstruction of an attempt to obstruct an official proceeding, conspiracy against. Rights, Trump campaign, not shockingly called it Fake news, the indictment feels like it's got him dead to rights, and this is on top of the oath keepers founder, Su Roads getting 18 years, and a bunch of other Cases. In addition to that, the Doj prosecutors also accused Trump of ordering employees to delete security videos And the classified documents case, the cover up, of course being worse than the crime. It looks like they got them dead to rights on that 1 as well.
Jason All of this against the backdrop of Des spending tens of millions of dollars and falling in his percentage. Sa explain to the audience why this is hunter Biden fault and that's a deep state conspiracy. I could. What are your thoughts on?
Freeburg Well, when you say they have them dead to rights? Like, what what do you mean by that? What's your basis for saying?
Sa Exactly What
Freeburg Debt debt rights on what charge?
Jason Yeah. So in this indictment, the 45 pages, if you read it, you will see that they put up fate... Electorate electrodes and they knew that it wasn't going to work and they did it anyway after losing 60 cases. So that's the belief of why this is such a serious case. And then also the cover up, obstructing justice and it looks like some of these maintenance workers are potentially flipping and Mark Meadows, they claim has flipped as well.
Jason So... But but, you know, he listen to everybody.
Freeburg This case is sort of. Separate. I mean, I think we should just stick to this. The the big news here?
Jason What do you think of the fact that he tried this allegation that he tried to delete the videos? Do you think it's real? Or do you think it's made up on
Freeburg That's that's a that's a detail about a piece of evidence in that case. So I do think the incumbents(46 case is on a sound or legal footing. Than the 6
Jason You're saying? More dangerous too?
Freeburg It doesn't involve as many novel legal theories. Now is it really dangerous? I think the American people think that at the end of the day that Doctor's case is sort of a paperwork case. And there are many other people who violated the classified requirements rules like Sandy burger, like, David Petra portray like, Hillary Clinton never prosecuted it. So I think if they have him dead rights on any of the cases, is the documents case.
Freeburg But I also think that in the American people, that in the minds of the American people feels like Dc inside baseball. Now I think on this 20 sixth case?
Jason About the documents case. What do your person you think?
Freeburg I think if you're gonna prosecute Trump for that, you can prosecute all these other people who violate, classified documents rules.
Jason What do you think about him?
Freeburg Sandy Berger who worked for Clinton. Who was a National Security advisor stuffed his pants.
Jason Yeah.
Freeburg With... Classify documents from 1 of those clean rooms and got away with the slap on the wrist.
Jason What do you Try to overturn the election.
Freeburg Well, look,
Sa Do you think he
Jason tried to over overturn the election? I mean, just a basic fact?
Freeburg Let me state right away that I think that what... Trump did in the wake of the 20 20 election was ind indispensable. I said so at the time. I said.
Jason Did did I give a...
Freeburg Say. What I said is that once the supreme court Once the courts in general throughout his case. And once the Supreme court denied Cert, it was time frame him to stop. And he kept...
Jason Yeah. Yeah.
Freeburg It was time him to stop. And he did it. And so I think that his actions were defense. However, when you're talking about criminal prosecution, they can't just be an expression of condemnation. You actually have to prove that somebody engage your criminal behavior.
Freeburg And the issue here with this January 6 case, is that it relies on novel legal theories. There's actually a really good article in New York Times All places explain this,
Jason you think there was a possibility that he... If he could have, he would have turned over the election if Pence had gone along with it?
Freeburg You're you're you're going into a bunch hypothetical here. The question is whether these charges will actually stand up to scrutiny. Let me read you. What david and art from the new York times reported? Because I actually think when you have the new york time saying that the case is weak, I think it's really indicative.
Freeburg So what The new time says or Leon Art says is, Shocking as it was, Trump's behavior on January 6 did not violate any laws in obvious ways. He never directly told Those The January 6 Rally to Attack Congress. During his speech That Day. He even said he Knew the Protesters Would Behave Peacefully And. Is part of a long Trump pattern to which as my colleague Maggie, Haven puts it, quote, he is often both all over the place and yet somewhat careful, not to cross certain lines and, quote.
Freeburg As for Trump's broader effort to overturn the election, result, no federal law specifically bars, politicians were attempting to do so. Without such a law, Smith has relied on a novel approach. She has charged Trump with committing criminal fraud, violating conspiracy laws or are not rin prevent. The overturn of election result. And then he says that key part of these laws, they revolve around a person's intent.
Freeburg Intent is court to the notion of fraud only if someone is knowing trying to deceive others can be committing a fraud. And he says that's why the case seems like they revolve around trump state of mind. So the problem with this is they have to only prove that what Trump did in the wake of the election was ind ind indispensable and outrageous and all the things that you believe. They have to prove that Trump knew that he lost the election and knowing the fraud. And I don't think you'll be able to ever prove that be beyond a reasonable doubt.
Freeburg But even though, yes, there are statements they point to.
Jason Yeah. Make all those statements. And then Bill Bar, Mark Meadows, everybody touched on Pence has flipped on them. They're all flipped
Freeburg on them. Same those people Yes. But Trump also had this w pack of lawyers. So you had Giuliani and you had Sydney
Jason Pass. And Jaw.
Freeburg And Michael Lin, the pillow guy. They were all in the White House telling Trump, that listen, you won the election. You've been robbed, and there are val legal grounds for you to contest this. And Trump for years has been maintaining the stolen election narrative. Even when his advisers have told him.
Freeburg This is not good for you. The the guy has stole an election on the brain. Okay? Every interview, he's brought this up even when it's manifesting harmful to himself and their Republican party. So this idea that you can prove that he doesn't really believe.
Freeburg The election was stolen. The 1 thing I believe about Trump is that he really does believe the election was stolen. And I think you will never be able to prove, be beyond a reasonable doubt that he is knowing lying about that. And as a result of this, you can never prove this case. Now it also relies on this novel theory, they are turning the civil rights line to a pretzel to try and figure out a way.
Freeburg To ind indictment Trump or prosecute under this novel lil theory of committing quote fraud against the American people. Okay? This ain't novel legal theory that's never been tried before. And by the way, if you're gonna create as a precedent, I hope we're gonna go after those the signer of the Lancet letter we talked about because they committed a fraud against American people. I hope that we will prosecute the 51 spies who lied.
Freeburg Because they portrayed fought against American people. I hope hosting and I hope we will go after the authors of that steele dossier because they a father of the American people there's a lot of people in Washington who a fought in the American people. I hope we're gonna go after all of them. But my point is this, It's not the job. Of a prosecutor to be creative with the law ever.
Freeburg I mean, they are supposed to apply the law strictly as written. They're supposed to bring cases that are open and shut And what Jack is doing here is going for this bank shot where he wants to charge Trump incite, but he knows he can't win that case. So he's going for this backdoor or civil rights law to sidestep the first amendment problem. And it might be this is an abusive, prosecutor power. And once you let prosecutors get creative like this.
Freeburg You're on a slippery slope to show me the man, I'll show you the call as stalin's Russia. So listen, I believe that again, Trump's actions were illegitimate and outrageous. But again, the purpose of criminal laws is not to express dis approval. You feel approve these cases in an open and shut without novel legal theories.
Sa I just wanna say I need to give I need to give Sa a 10 out of 10 for this last piece. That was excellent.
Jason Absolutely.
Freeburg Jason. Here's a question I asked
Jason ask you. Go.
Freeburg Do you believe that Trump was guilty of inc an interaction?
Jason Absolutely. Yeah. When he told them those people to... Yeah. When he told
Freeburg those people to go down why Jack Smith.
Jason Yeah. It's hard.
Freeburg Why hasn't Jack Smith indicted Trump? They've even indicted to Trump on all these different charges with over 500 years time. And they have not indicted in to why not.
Jason They they they could always add to the charging. And so I suspect when they start flipping people they will. But, you know, it's. To have this discussion motion, move on to the. No Hold on.
Jason Hold. Hold me question. Here's the. You know what 30 percent of people in the Republican party about 30 percent of this country have Trump stockholm syndrome, they cannot let go of Trump And so there's no reason to debate it with the Gop, the hefty Ts. And it it...
Jason You're going to defend him to the dying day. You're going to do what about Ism. The Republican party will never accept the fact that this person's a criminal, he's corrupt. And he's a horrible human being and he and he is not fit to serve, and you're gonna serve him up as your candidate. It's disgraceful.
Jason The Gop is a disaster for for actually supporting him. Guy has no morality and he would have overturned the government if he had the chance. And he will do it again.
Freeburg Respond to this Have a couple short points...
Jason As many points as you want.
Freeburg Either all absolutely fixated on January 6. And it's the people who've been trying to whip this up and make it into a crime and event all these novel illegal charges and haven't stopped talking about for the last 2 and a half years. I'm so sick of talking about this all January sixth thing. I don't want this to be our politics. Okay.
Freeburg The people who've made it our politics include the the mainstream media, all the people on Cnn Msnbc won't stop talking about it. And part of the reason why I think Trump likely will be the nominee is because they are creating a backlash. In the Gop where people basically think that he's being unfairly, prosecuted and. Now to my question, why aren't they charging him with incite? That is the crime that the media says he is committed for the last 2 and a half years, So why aren't they charging him?
Freeburg Because the Doj looked at that, at the beginning. Of 20 21. Merrick Garland Doj looked at that, and they did a report and found that they could not win that case. And when that came out, the media and even by himself so that Merrick Garland was basically being a wimp and should be tougher. So that's when they appointed Jack Smith to be the special counsel to go find some all the way of prose him.
Freeburg And so that's why they've invented this novel legal theory. Now, I think the reason why we should care about this that has nothing to do with wanting to defend Trump or make him that not me is that I don't think our political system should be weaponized this way. Because when they can start inventing novel legal theories to get somebody. That's what they've done here, Jason. It's show me the man.
Freeburg I'll show you the cry.
Jason No. Try to overthrow and reverse the election, and he tried to do that by putting up a fake slate and he tried to convince pence to go along with it. Pence is an honorable person who wouldn't go along with it. And everybody in his cabinet said this is a bridge too far his his supporters from barr to Pence, to meadows all told him, police stop what you're doing is illegal, you cannot overturn the government. The the the election results.
Freeburg But are you saying this signs? You saying this as an expression of condemnation against Trump? Or you say. I think trump Smith I think have.
Jason I think it'll be proven that he broke a lot of things were proven in the documents case that he also tried to cover it up. But that's just my opinion. I believe that he's a criminal. Believe you will be held accountable. I think he should Be held accountable for trying to overthrow the election.
Jason He tried to overturn The election. I That is the most treason thing you can do. You can come up with all of
Freeburg your of. Charge them with incite. Think there invented this novelty system.
Jason He's a very smart guy when it comes to avoiding accountability. And I think that it's his... The clock is running out for him.
n/a You know what? Jay? Do you know that it's a little surprising that all of these charges are hitting years after this event took place in the months leading up to the Republican primary?
Jason No. I think it's...
n/a That's the weirdest thing to me is, like, why would it take so many years to prosecute someone all those guys that went into capital the capital building. They all got charged with crimes years ago, you know, 2 years ago. Why is all this up falling on Trump today? It's like the biggest this trump jury. I meant
Jason the case. Yeah. And they pay time to build these?
n/a Because I will say it does feel like it is interrupting a political process that if there were criminal charges to be filed, I would have liked to have seen them file 2 years ago, this could all get ad educated ahead of a political cycle. Now that it's in the middle of a political cycle, it makes me as a Us citizen, nervous about the fact that there are agencies interfering in the political cycle.
Sa You're so right. He could've
Jason have given the documents back when they asked for them, and he could have said don't delete. Yeah. Talking about both. Yeah. And it takes it
Freeburg it subject to the case.
Jason Talking about those cases. I'm talking about both cases concurrent. We're talking about I
Freeburg would say the document is more solid but less important. Okay? Sure. Says this in the New York time.
Jason But you asked me a question. I I think it takes time to build a case properly, and it took them a long time to get through the 400 people who attack the capital in bronze. Tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition to The capital and put it in 3 hotels, which is why the keepers Got 18 years, 400 people Have Gotten sentenced in That. For Good reason. They beat cops.
Jason They beat They broke down their way into The capital And they brought dozens of Ar 15 and they bought tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition and placed them in hotels around the capital. They These are dangerous domestic tariffs. They would him for.
Freeburg Think that's not what he's being indicted for. No.
Jason They... I'm talking about who they... They Already Got Those Keepers On 18 Years.
Freeburg I just want Read This 1 Sentence From from Leon Just to wrap this Up. Because This is The new York times. Yes This is the New Times. He Says, You can think of the new charges being both more important and less solid than Trump's previous federal indictment.
Jason I'm listen, everybody's gonna have different opinions on this. III get that. I just hope he has his day in court, and I think he's guilty, and I think it'll be proven that he's guilty and that it's time to start moving this towards a pardon and figuring out how to get him out of political life and give him a pardon in for all these crimes he's committed and let him off the hook, but get them out and so that your party can feel a good candidate. That's what I hope happens.
Freeburg I think 1 of the really tragic side effects of these. Prosecution where they're inventing novel legal theories clearly to get this man for what he did, even though it was outrageous, but I don't think criminal in the way you wanted it to be Jason. But they're really tragic thing. I want
Jason to... I would rather he didn't do this criminal activity Like
Freeburg I get. I get it I. Want to be To now it. I'm not defending his actions. I'm defending the integrity of our legal system.
Freeburg Sure. Really the tragic thing out this. The tragic thing about this. Is that want the 20 24 election to be about issues. It's not.
Freeburg It's gonna be a referendum on what happened Yep. In 20 20. And there is no way to convince either side of the American people that they're wrong about that. The Msnbc, Cnn Crowd are gonna believe that Trump. Is guilty of a crime no matter where this case comes out.
Freeburg And by the way, I think Trump's actually gonna win this case, maybe not in the Dc jury pool, but I think you'll win it on appeal. Because I
Jason supreme court. Yeah.
Freeburg I think if you have state at court, he's gonna win. Because there's this a novel to go through. By the way, Jack Smith took a case against the Virginia governor to the Str court, got overturned on Appeal 9 because of an outrageous legal theory there. So that same thing could happen here. I think it probably But but those people who believe in this will never rec convinced and by the same token, Trump supporters the other half of the country will never be convinced that this was not a political persecution.
Jason It's Td. So versus this
Freeburg on, this will tear the country apart. And to Free point, it's 2 and a half years later, we could have just moved on There's plenty of other things. They already have the documents case. So this is a political prosecution by Biden
Jason do you have any way this? Your what's your solution to get out of this?
Freeburg We should it just moved on?
Jason Oh not charge them.
Freeburg Yeah. Listen. The the proper forum to deal with this? Was the impeachment hearing. The second impeachment was expressly on the correct charge which was whether Trump incite interaction.
Freeburg They already had this trial. The proper form was that impeachment trial, He made it through and it's up to voters,
Jason actually said the proper 1 was to go criminal. So it it's interesting. Yeah. He said the impeachment was the wrong way to do. Should just do the criminals.
Jason So here we are doing the criminal then.
Freeburg The country should should move forward. And instead, we're gonna apart
Jason on it?
Freeburg And this is what 20 24 is not gonna be about.
Jason What do you think Free break. What what do you think is a good path? Ford.
n/a I kind of align with the fact that this is a little bit too late. It's in the middle of an election cycle and the damage that it will cause in terms of how our country views the intersection between the justice system and the electoral process can be more damaging. Then the benefit we would gain from bringing an individual justice for breaking the law in this case. Unfortunately, the timing is just off, and I think it's really scary. Alright.
Freeburg Jason, you have to ask what what is actually in gonna strength in our democracy and what is the wisdom of bringing these charges? I think this case shows a lack of wisdom? I don't think it's gonna strengthen our democracy it's gonna undermine it. It's gonna make this country more polarized and hyper partisan, and it's not gonna to help us move past this era of our politics. And I believe that
Jason that a question towards me.
Freeburg I think Trump is responsible for part of that polarization. But I think Biden now is playing into it from the other side. I don't think we've... Had a president seek to ind. His leading political opponent who's likely to be...
Jason Involved in this. This is is the justice department. He's not... He's not driving It.
Freeburg Wait A second. That is Not True.
Jason K. Yeah. He's he's not Involved in. No.
Freeburg There's an Article In which Biden said, that when Merrick Garland refused the incite charges that he thought that it was weak in that, Biden thought that Trump deserves prosecuted And that was a public articles in the New york Times, and I'll provide the note. Okay.
Jason Question for me? You have a question? You said you want to ask me a question?
Freeburg No, no. I didn't say a question. I just need to respond. But my my opinion is, I now think that Biden is crossed line year. And just remember, this is not an independent prosecutor.
Freeburg Jack Smith. Works for Merrick Garland, who works for Joe Biden. This is a Banana public type stuff. This is 1 president's Doj. Seeking to prosecute his main political opponent?
Jason Who put Merrick Garland in?
Freeburg Biden didn't appointed him.
Jason Yeah. So this has bentley the all in podcast, Cha jamal had to bounce. For a burke congratulations on okay 99. Hope it happens. Sac sorry about.
n/a Congratulations to you too. Congratulations to you 2 sex. If it's proven to be real, we will all... Benefit. So it's great.
n/a Yeah.
Jason Right? And we'll see you all. Good for time. On. The pockets Go bye.
Jason Bye bye.
Freeburg We'll let your winner ride.
Jason Rain man David sack.
Freeburg And said Open sources to the fans and they've just gone crazy
Jason with. Of We should
n/a just get room and just have big huge Dory because they're all these useless it's like this like sexual tension but they just need to release somehow mountain.
n/a