Polymarket

Polymarket is the world's largest decentralized prediction market, allowing users to trade on the real-time probability of future events.

Polymarket operates as a decentralized prediction market, built on the Polygon network, where traders buy and sell 'outcome shares' based on world events. These shares are priced between $0.01 and $1.00, with the price signaling the market’s implied probability of a 'Yes' or 'No' outcome (e.g., a share at $0.65 implies a 65% chance). Launched in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, the platform facilitates trading across diverse categories: politics, crypto, and macroeconomic indicators. Markets have seen significant volume; for instance, a market on a US political nomination once reached over $207 million in volume. This mechanism aggregates dispersed information, often yielding forecasts more accurate than traditional polls or pundits, effectively converting collective belief into a continuously updated probability signal.

https://polymarket.com