Summary The Rising of the Storm - Part I - by Edward Scarlett-Watts edwardscarlettwatts.substack.com
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Edward Scarlett-Watts warns of the rising threat of nuclear war due to Russia's aggression towards Ukraine, emphasizing the influence of cultural and spiritual motivations, mythical thinking, and the dangerous mindset of Russia's belief in being a chosen people, further legitimized by the involvement of the Russian Orthodox Church with nuclear forces, and the fear that negotiations and removing Putin from power may not change the underlying beliefs of Russian national security leaders.
Slides
Slide Presentation (8 slides)
Key Points
- The Western world is misreading Putin's nuclear threats due to a lack of understanding of the cultural and spiritual motivations behind them.
- We are living in dangerous times, where irrational forces are seeping into geopolitical stand-offs, making violence and annihilation possible.
- Ignorance of these motivations and failure to recognize the danger could lead to catastrophic consequences.
- Russian President Putin may be psychologically and spiritually preparing his people for total nuclear war.
- The fusion of messianic beliefs, willingness to sacrifice lives, and the veneration of nuclear weapons in Russia poses a significant threat.
- There is a fear that Russia may do something to signal their seriousness about striking the US and their allies if they do not stop supporting Ukraine.
- Negotiations and diplomacy are unlikely to end the holy war mentality in Russia. Removing Putin from power may not change the underlying beliefs of the Russian national security elite.
Summaries
140 word summary
Edward Scarlett-Watts warns of the rising threat of nuclear war due to Russia's aggression towards Ukraine. He explains that understanding Putin's nuclear threats requires knowledge of their cultural and spiritual motivations. Scarlett-Watts explores the influence of mythical thinking on geopolitical conflicts. Russia's larger threats against the West and NATO should be a concern, as they may be preparing for total nuclear war. The concept of the Katechon and Russia's belief in being a chosen people contribute to this dangerous mindset. The Russian Orthodox Church's involvement with nuclear forces further legitimizes this threat. There is fear that Russia may take action to demonstrate their seriousness about striking the US and its allies. Negotiations and removing Putin from power may not change the underlying beliefs of Russian national security leaders. Scarlett-Watts emphasizes the need for awareness and strength in these perilous times.
353 word summary
Edward Scarlett-Watts warns of the rising threat of nuclear war, specifically in relation to Russia's aggression towards Ukraine. He argues that the Western world misunderstands Putin's nuclear threats due to a lack of understanding of their cultural and spiritual motivations. Scarlett-Watts believes that we are currently in a dangerous era where irrational forces are infiltrating geopolitical stand-offs, making violence and annihilation possible. He stresses the importance of strength and awareness, even if the threat never materializes. Scarlett-Watts intends to further explore how mythical thinking is influencing other geopolitical conflicts.
The larger threats made by Russia against the West and NATO are cause for concern, even though they have not directly threatened the use of tactical weapons. Traditional deterrence may not work against Putin, as he may be psychologically and spiritually preparing his people for total nuclear war. The concept of the Katechon, which restrains evil in the End Times, appears to have influenced Putin and Russia. This mythic vision aligns with Russia's belief in being a chosen people with a messianic role. The Russian Orthodox Church has become intertwined with Russia's nuclear forces, giving them legitimacy and a divine identity. This Nuclear Orthodoxy has elevated nuclear weapons to sacred tools, posing a serious threat.
There is fear that Russia may take action to demonstrate their seriousness about striking the US and its allies if support for Ukraine continues. The use of nuclear weapons as a means to restore fear and deterrence has been suggested. The combination of messianic beliefs, willingness to sacrifice lives, and the perceived divine blessings on these weapons is deeply troubling. Negotiations and diplomacy are unlikely to end the holy war mentality, and removing Putin from power may not alter the underlying beliefs of Russian national security leaders. The writer expresses concern that leaders do not fully comprehend the danger and suggests practical and psychological preparations for what may come.
Overall, Scarlett-Watts warns of the potentially catastrophic consequences of misinterpreting Putin's nuclear threats and emphasizes the need for awareness and strength in these perilous times. He hopes that by raising awareness, he has at least opened eyes to the danger.
404 word summary
Edward Scarlett-Watts warns of the rising threat of nuclear war, particularly in the context of Russia's aggression towards Ukraine. He argues that the Western world is misreading Putin's nuclear threats due to a lack of understanding of the cultural and spiritual motivations behind them. Scarlett-Watts believes that we are living in dangerous times, where irrational forces are seeping into geopolitical stand-offs, making violence and annihilation possible. He emphasizes the need for strength and awareness of the danger, even if it never materializes. Scarlett-Watts plans to continue exploring how mythical thinking is taking hold in other geopolitical stand-offs.
The Russians have not directly threatened the use of tactical weapons, but their larger threats against the West and NATO are cause for concern. Putin may be psychologically and spiritually preparing his people for total nuclear war, posing a grave danger as traditional deterrence may not work against him. The concept of the Katechon, which refers to a force that restrains evil in the End Times, seems to have infused Russia's President Putin and the country itself. This mythic vision aligns with Russia's sense of being a chosen people with a messianic role in saving humanity. The Russian Orthodox Church has become intertwined with Russia's nuclear forces, providing them with legitimacy and a divine identity. This Nuclear Orthodoxy has turned nuclear weapons into sacred tools and must be taken seriously.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept a disaster that could lead to the end of the world has been highlighted. There is a fear that Russia may do something to signal their seriousness about striking the US and their allies if they do not stop supporting Ukraine. The use of nuclear weapons has been suggested as a way to restore fear and deterrence. The combination of messianic beliefs, willingness to sacrifice lives, and the blessings of God on these weapons is deeply concerning. Negotiations and diplomacy are unlikely to end the holy war mentality, and removing Putin from power may not change the underlying beliefs of the Russian national security elite. The writer expresses concern that leaders do not fully understand the danger and suggests practical and psychological preparations for what may come.
Overall, Scarlett-Watts warns of the potential catastrophic consequences of misreading Putin's nuclear threats and emphasizes the need for awareness and strength in the face of these dangerous times. He hopes that by raising awareness, he has at least opened eyes to the danger.
820 word summary
In this excerpt, Edward Scarlett-Watts discusses the rising threat of nuclear war, particularly in the context of Russia's aggression towards Ukraine. He argues that the Western world is misreading Putin's nuclear threats due to a lack of understanding of the cultural and spiritual motivations behind them. Scarlett-Watts believes that we are living in dangerous times, where irrational forces are seeping into geopolitical stand-offs, making violence and annihilation possible. He refers to these moments as "mythic times," where people act for reasons that the rational mind cannot comprehend. He warns that our ignorance of these motivations and our failure to recognize the danger could lead to catastrophic consequences. Scarlett-Watts acknowledges that thus far, Putin's threats have not been followed through, but he cautions against complacency. He believes that we must stand up to Russia, but not without recognizing the potential price it may ask of us. He emphasizes the need for strength and awareness of the danger, even if it never materializes. Scarlett-Watts plans to continue his series of essays, exploring how mythical thinking is taking hold in other geopolitical stand-offs. He ends by discussing the potential path to nuclear war and the rationalists' view of the road to destruction, where Putin may use a small nuclear weapon in Ukraine to save himself from defeat. However, any response from the West could escalate into a holocaust, highlighting our blind spot of rationality.
The Russians have not directly threatened the use of tactical weapons, but their larger threats against the West and NATO are cause for concern. While many interpret their threats as limited to tactical strikes in Ukraine, it is possible that Putin is considering a significant strike against the West or a NATO ally. He may be psychologically and spiritually preparing his people for total nuclear war. This poses a grave danger as traditional deterrence may not work against such a leader. Western skepticism and our illusion of perpetual peace have made us stop listening to Russia's warnings. The Russian leadership believes that fear is the only thing that can deter their adversaries, but this fear factor no longer exists in the West. We must consider the possibility that they are trying to warn us of the potential catastrophe of nuclear war. The concept of the Katechon, which refers to a force that restrains evil in the End Times, seems to have infused Russia's President Putin and the country itself. This mythic vision aligns with Russia's sense of being a chosen people with a messianic role in saving humanity. This ideology, combined with the belief in holy war and the fusion of warlike Christianity with military force, has dangerous implications. The Russian Orthodox Church has become intertwined with Russia's nuclear forces, providing them with legitimacy and a divine identity. The theocratization of Russia's nuclear forces raises concerns about the execution of orders to launch nuclear weapons and the potential for fanaticism. The ideology of holy war and the veneration of nuclear weapons have made the Russian people more comfortable with the idea of using them. This Nuclear Orthodoxy has turned nuclear weapons into sacred tools. Overall, this ideological fusion poses a significant threat and must be taken seriously.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's willingness to accept a disaster that could lead to the end of the world has been highlighted in his own comments and the concerns of others. There is a fear that Russia may do something to signal their seriousness about striking the US and their allies if they do not stop supporting Ukraine. This could include a nuclear test or the movement of strategic weapons. The use of nuclear weapons has been suggested as a way to restore fear and deterrence, even if it means sacrificing a smaller target such as a Polish city. The combination of messianic beliefs, willingness to sacrifice lives, and the blessings of God on these weapons is deeply concerning. The assumption that the West would not retaliate to protect its ally, Poland, is seen as flawed. If Russia were to make a show of taking steps to strike, there would be little that could be done in response, as a pre-emptive strike would risk provoking an attack. This crisis is unlike any other in history and poses a Catch-22 situation where defeat could bring about the end of the world. Negotiations and diplomacy are unlikely to end the holy war mentality, and removing Putin from power may not change the underlying beliefs of the Russian national security elite. The writer expresses concern that leaders do not fully understand the danger and suggests practical and psychological preparations for what may come. The hope lies in the courage to face the threat and stand firm, even in the face of weakness and fear that Putin believes exists in the West. The writer acknowledges that no one knows what will happen, but hopes that by raising awareness, they have at least opened eyes to the danger.