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The surprise attack by Russia on Ukraine caught the Biden administration and French President Macron off guard, despite prior warnings and evidence of troop buildup.
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Key Points
- Russia's attack on Ukraine was difficult to predict despite warnings from the Biden administration and evidence of troop buildup.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky initially dismissed claims of an impending invasion.
- The unpredictability of authoritarian leaders like Vladimir Putin makes it challenging to forecast their aggressive actions.
- Keren Yarhi-Milo is the Dean of Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs.
- Laura Resnick Samotin is an Adjunct Assistant Professor of Political Science at Columbia University.
Summaries
21 word summary
Russia's attack on Ukraine surprised many, including the Biden administration and French President Macron, despite warnings and evidence of troop buildup.
40 word summary
Russia's attack on Ukraine took many by surprise, despite warnings from the Biden administration and evidence of Russian troop buildup. Even French President Emmanuel Macron dismissed the possibility of an escalation just days before the invasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky
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The Unpredictable
Dictators
Why Its So
Hard to Forecast Authoritarian Aggression
By
Keren Yarhi-Milo and Laura Resnick
Samotin
August
4, 2023
A soldier in front of an
image of Chinese President Xi Jinping in Hong Kong, June 2019
Tyrone Siu /
Reuters
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Until
the week before it happened, most people refused to believe that Russia
would attack Ukraine. Despite repeated warnings from the Biden
administration and widespread evidence that Moscows troops were massing
on Ukraines borders, it was difficult to accept that Russian President
Vladimir Putin would try conquering Europes largest state. He wont be
initiating an escalation, said French President Emmanuel Macron on
February 8, just 16 days before the invasion.
Ukrainian
President Volodymyr Zelensky was also caught off-guard, saying at the
end of January that Bidens claims of a coming invasion were simply
panic. The German government
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KEREN YARHI-MILO is Dean
of Columbia Universitys School of International and Public Affairs, the
Adlai E. Stevenson Professor of International Relations, and author of
Who
Fights for Reputation? The Psychology of Leaders in International
Conflict
LAURA RESNICK SAMOTIN is an Adjunct Assistant
Professor of Political Science at Columbia University, a Nonresident
Senior Fellow at the Stimson Center, and a Nonresident Senior Fellow at
the USC Schwarzenegger Institute for State and Global
Policy.
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