Summary Erdogan’s Weak Hand in the Western Balkans | The National Interest nationalinterest.org
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One Line
Turkey's aspirations for influence in the Balkans are hindered by distrust, religious disparities, containment strategies, and geographical obstacles, preventing the realization of its ambitions in the region.
Slides
Slide Presentation (9 slides)
Key Points
- Turkey's foreign policy in the Balkans has been weak and lacks a clear strategy.
- Turkey's presence in the Balkans is mostly economic and cultural, with limited political engagement.
- Turkey has increased its economic and political ties with Bosnia, Kosovo, and Albania, but meaningful infrastructural or government investments have been lacking.
- The US and EU have implemented a containment policy towards Turkey in the Balkans to prevent its influence in Muslim-majority states.
- Turkey's lack of coastal access limits its direct contact with Bosnia and Kosovo.
- Turkey could potentially support parties in Bosnia and Kosovo to gain more influence and leverage in the region.
- Turkey may also foster alliances with non-Muslim-majority states like North Macedonia and Montenegro to counterbalance the US-EU influence in the Balkans.
- The ball is now in Turkey's court to decide on its next moves in the Balkans.
Summaries
20 word summary
Turkey's Balkan policy falls short of its Middle East ambitions due to suspicions, religious differences, containment policies, and geographical challenges.
65 word summary
Turkey's foreign policy in the Balkans has been limited, with its political engagement falling short of its ambitions in the Middle East. Erdogan's neo-Ottoman approach seeks alliances with conservative or Muslim elements in former Ottoman provinces, but suspicions, religious differences, containment policies, and geographical challenges have hindered its influence. Turkey must decide if it wants to overcome these obstacles and exert influence in the Balkans.
115 word summary
Turkey's foreign policy in the Balkans has been limited, with its political engagement falling short of its ambitions in the Middle East. While Turkey has economic and cultural ties with Balkan states, suspicions and religious differences have hindered its influence. Under Erdogan, Turkey has increased its presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Albania, but meaningful investments have been rare. Erdogan's neo-Ottoman approach seeks alliances with conservative or Muslim elements in former Ottoman provinces. However, the US-EU alliance has implemented containment policies to curb Turkish influence, and geography presents challenges as neither Bosnia nor Kosovo have direct coastal access. Turkey must decide if it wants to overcome these obstacles and exert influence in the Balkans.
389 word summary
Turkey's foreign policy in the Balkans has been weak and lackluster compared to its ambitions in the Middle East. While Turkey has economic and cultural ties with Balkan states, its political engagement has been limited. This is partly due to the suspicion that Christian-majority Balkan states have towards Turkey, as well as the fact that most Balkan states do not have majority Muslim populations. Despite this, Turkey has increased its economic and political presence in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Albania since Erdogan came to power. However, meaningful infrastructural and government investments have been rare, and private investment from Turkey has mostly flowed to Christian-majority states like North Macedonia and Serbia.
Erdogan's neo-Ottoman approach focuses on building alliances with conservative or Muslim elements in former Ottoman provinces that are now independent states. Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, and Albania are the only three such states in the Balkans. Turkey has established close ties with the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) in Bosnia, but its overall political engagement in the Western Balkans is lacking. The United States and the EU have implemented a containment policy towards Turkey in the Balkans, as seen through their involvement in the internal politics of Western Balkan states. They have also taken steps to prevent Turkish influence in Muslim-majority states surrounded by EU member state borders.
Geography poses a limitation for Turkey's engagement in the Balkans, as neither Bosnia nor Kosovo have direct coastal access. Turkey's reaction to these challenges remains to be seen, but one possible option is to financially and politically support parties in Bosnia and Kosovo that compete for the support of the Muslim majority. Turkey could also foster alliances with non-Muslim-majority states like North Macedonia and Montenegro. However, Turkey must decide if it wants to enter the Balkan fray at all, as the US-EU alliance has made it difficult for Turkey to exert influence in the region.
Overall, Turkey's weak hand in the Western Balkans is evident. Despite its historical ties and Muslim-majority populations in Bosnia, Kosovo, and Albania, Turkey's political engagement and strategic involvement in the region have been limited. The US-EU alliance has implemented containment policies to prevent Turkish influence, and geography poses a challenge for Turkey's direct engagement. Turkey must decide on its next steps and whether it wants to overcome these obstacles to exert influence in the Balkans.