Summary A deterrence response monitoring capability for the US Department of Defense | Brookings www.brookings.edu
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The Brookings article suggests developing a deterrence response monitoring (DRM) capability for the US Department of Defense (DoD) using commercial technologies to counter illegal activities by the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia, minimizing miscommunication and providing insights into their behavior.
Slides
Slide Presentation (11 slides)
Key Points
- The US Department of Defense can develop a deterrence response monitoring (DRM) capability using technology to counter illegal activities.
- DRM can help convey US intent effectively and prevent miscommunication and unintended escalation with the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) in the Western Pacific.
- The focus is on the activities of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) and tracking their behaviors at sea.
- A DRM capability can be developed by combining commercial technologies for comprehensive monitoring and establishing a baseline of PLA behaviors.
- Consistent fielding of a DRM program requires central coordination, intelligence inputs, and communication with allies and partners.
- The estimated cost for initial investments in a DRM program is between $50 million and $90 million.
- Commercial providers offer ship tracking services using surface-based and space-based sensors, imagery data, tracking algorithms, and anomaly detection techniques.
Summaries
170 word summary
The Brookings article proposes developing a deterrence response monitoring (DRM) capability for the US Department of Defense (DoD) to counter illegal activities, focusing on the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia. Using commercial technologies, a DRM prototype can enhance deterrence efforts, prevent miscommunication, and unintended escalation. By monitoring PLA behaviors and identifying deviations from baseline patterns, a DRM capability can minimize miscommunication and misperception. Large-scale sensing and computing technologies can track the behaviors of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia at sea, providing insights into their behavior and defensive options. Implementing a maritime surveillance technology stack can measure PLAN/PAFMM responses and predict their behavior. The estimated cost for initial investments in a DRM program is between $50 million and $90 million. Technology providers like FleetMon, Spire, Orbcomm, Planet Labs, Airbus, and Maxar offer ship tracking services and imagery data that can be used for analysis. Developing a DRM capability using commercial technologies can enhance deterrence efforts, prevent miscommunication, and provide insights into the behavior of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia.
239 word summary
The Brookings article proposes the development of a deterrence response monitoring (DRM) capability for the US Department of Defense (DoD) to counter illegal activities, specifically focusing on the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia. The authors suggest using readily available commercial technologies to create a DRM prototype that can enhance deterrence efforts and prevent miscommunication and unintended escalation.
To counter threats from the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) and prevent war, the DoD needs to minimize miscommunication and misperception. A DRM capability can be developed by combining commercial technologies to monitor PLA behaviors and identify deviations from baseline patterns. This surveillance can provide insights into PLA behavior and defensive options.
Tracking the behaviors of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia at sea is necessary. Large-scale sensing and computing technologies can monitor infrastructure development, troop movements, and other activities for analysis.
Implementing a maritime surveillance technology stack can measure PLAN/PAFMM responses and predict their behavior. Central coordination, intelligence inputs, and communication with allies and partners are required for consistent fielding of a DRM program.
The estimated cost for initial investments in a DRM program is between $50 million and $90 million. Technology providers like FleetMon, Spire, Orbcomm, Planet Labs, Airbus, and Maxar offer ship tracking services and imagery data that can be used for analysis.
Overall, developing a DRM capability using commercial technologies can enhance deterrence efforts, prevent miscommunication, and provide insights into the behavior of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia.
384 word summary
The Brookings article discusses the development of a deterrence response monitoring (DRM) capability for the US Department of Defense (DoD) to counter illegal activities, specifically focusing on the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia. The authors propose the use of readily available commercial technologies to create a DRM prototype that can enhance deterrence efforts and prevent miscommunication and unintended escalation.
The DoD must be prepared to respond to threats from the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) that erode US interests in the Western Pacific. To prevent war, the DoD needs to minimize miscommunication and misperception. While the DoD's nuclear arsenal and conventional forces act as deterrents, reducing the likelihood of escalatory crises is crucial.
A DRM capability can be developed by combining commercial technologies that enable comprehensive monitoring of PLA behaviors and identifying deviations from baseline patterns. This surveillance can help differentiate intended signals from standard noise and provide insights into PLA behavior and defensive options.
To counter the illegal activities of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia, tracking their behaviors at sea is necessary. Large-scale sensing and computing technologies can monitor infrastructure development, troop movements, and other activities for indications and warnings analysis.
Implementing a maritime surveillance technology stack can measure PLAN/PAFMM responses and identify the effect of purposeful interventions on targeted actors. This approach can help predict their behavior and make informed decisions.
For consistent fielding of a DRM program, central coordination, intelligence inputs, and communication with allies and partners are required. The Office of the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer (CDAO) within the DoD can oversee the program's administration.
The resource requirements for a DRM program include personnel, data feeds, analytics tools, and computing infrastructure. The estimated cost for initial investments is between $50 million and $90 million.
Developing a DRM capability is feasible, affordable, and aligned with the DoD's experimentation with emerging technologies.
In terms of technology providers, FleetMon, Spire, and Orbcomm offer ship tracking services using surface-based and space-based sensors. Imagery data from providers like Planet Labs, Airbus, and Maxar can be automatically scanned for ship identification. Various tracking algorithms and anomaly detection techniques can be used for data analysis.
Overall, the development of a DRM capability using commercial technologies can enhance deterrence efforts, prevent miscommunication, and provide valuable insights into the behavior of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia.
639 word summary
A deterrence response monitoring capability for the US Department of Defense is discussed in this article from Brookings. The authors propose the use of technology to create a deterrence feedback loop that can be used to counter illegal activities. The focus is on the activities of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia. The authors suggest deploying a DRM prototype to enhance deterrence efforts.
The Department of Defense (DoD) must be prepared to respond to threats from the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) that erode U.S. interests and standards of behavior in the Western Pacific. To achieve this, the DoD can develop a deterrence response monitoring (DRM) capability using readily available commercial technologies. This DRM capability can help convey U.S. intent effectively and prevent miscommunication and unintended escalation.
Emerging technologies play a crucial role in preventing war between the U.S. and China. The DoD must focus on minimizing miscommunication and misperception, as war would likely result from these factors rather than a surprise attack. The DoD's nuclear arsenal and conventional forces act as strong deterrents, but preventing conflict entirely requires reducing the likelihood of escalatory crises.
A DRM capability can be developed by combining commercial technologies that enable comprehensive monitoring of activities in all domains. This surveillance can establish a baseline of PLA behaviors and identify deviations from this baseline, helping differentiate intended signals from standard noise. It can also enhance U.S. efforts to influence PLA behavior and provide insights into their values, motivations, and defensive options.
Countering the illegal activities of the Peoples Armed Forces Maritime Militia (PAFMM) requires tracking their behaviors at sea. Large-scale sensing and computing technologies can monitor infrastructure development, troop movements, and other activities useful for indications and warnings (I&W) analysis. By establishing a baseline pattern of life, deviations from expected behavior can be detected and alerted for further investigation.
To develop a DRM capability, a maritime surveillance technology stack can be implemented to measure PLAN/PAFMM responses to various stimuli. Similar correlation methods used by social media companies can be applied to discern the effect of purposeful interventions on targeted actors. This approach can help identify actions that elicit PLAN/PAFMM responses and make informed predictions about their behavior.
Consistent fielding of a DRM program requires central coordination, intelligence inputs, and communication with allies and partners. The Office of the Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Officer (CDAO) within the DoD can oversee the program's administration and establish the necessary infrastructure and operational plans.
The resource requirements for a DRM program include personnel, data feeds, analytics tools, and computing infrastructure. The estimated cost for initial investments is between $50 million and $90 million, with subsequent scenarios being less costly due to economies of scale.
Developing a DRM capability is feasible, affordable, and aligned with the DoD's experimentation with emerging technologies. It can
Commercial providers such as FleetMon, Spire, and Orbcomm rely on surface-based and space-based sensors to provide ship tracking services. These services may be available through regional data subscriptions or signal analytics. Imagery data from providers like Planet Labs, Airbus, and Maxar can be automatically scanned to identify ships. Tracking algorithms, such as Kalman filters and particle filters, can estimate the state of a system or object over time based on sensor measurements. Anomaly detection techniques, such as clustering-based or classification-based methods, can be used to identify abnormal patterns in data. Facebook now estimates ad response using statistical methods due to stricter privacy controls on user data. The estimation of ad impressions can be calculated using total ad revenue, cost per ad click, and the rate at which people click on ads. Facebook has approximately 2.93 billion global users each month, with about 67% likely to see ads. The company's infrastructure includes 18 campuses with 85 data center buildings. Each data center, on average, is about 475,000 square feet in size and can accommodate around 650,000 servers.